Tuesday gives us a pair of great Champions League ties, one of which sees the German champions Bayern Munich needing to overturn a one-goal deficit to advance past Villarreal and into the semi-finals.
Can Julian Nagelsmann win at the Allianz Arena? Read our Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal betting picks and predictions to find out.
Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.
Bayern Munich vs Villarreal match odds
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bayern Munich vs Villarreal betting tips
- Prediction: Bayern Munich ML (-390)
- Prediction: Over 2.5 (-250)
- Best bet: Capoue to get booked (+225)
Predictions made on 4/11/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some Champions League betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Villareal to advance + both teams to score a goal + Arnaut Danjuma to score a goal BOOSTED to +900 (was +750) at bet365! Claim Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Bayern Munich vs Villarreal game info
• Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Paramount+, fuboTV
Bayern Munich vs Villarreal betting preview
Weather
It would have been a warm sunny day in Munich but temperatures will have dropped to the mid-50s by the time of kick-off.
Injuries
Bayern Munich: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ST (Out), Corentin Tolisso CM (Out), Bouna Sarr RB (Questionable).
Villarreal: Alberto Moreno LM (Out), Boulaye Dia ST (Questionable).
Bayern Munich vs Villarreal predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Tuesday brings the first of this year’s Champions League quarterfinal second leg games as Bayern Munich welcome Villarreal to the Allianz Arena. Julian Nagelsmann’s side will need to overturn a 1-0 loss in Spain if it is to reach the semi-final stage.
Villarreal winning that game was a huge shock, with the bookies pricing it at +475. It was something that very few people, myself included, saw coming. That can’t be said for this second leg when it feels like we all know what’s coming.
That 1-0 win and this Champions League campaign in general, have been the high point of the season for Villarreal with Unai Emery’s team seventh in La Liga and suffering from bad domestic form, winning just one of its past five in the league. Emery is a master of European competition, as we’ve seen during his career, but this is a monumental task for his team.
It was Bayern who dominated that first leg but Villarreal got the win, although it did miss other chances which could have put the tie beyond doubt. We’re likely to see Emery set up his team in a 4-4-2 with Gerard Moreno and Arnaut Danjuma leading the line.
Villa will need to rely on the creativity of Dani Parejo in the middle of the park if it's going to add another goal to its tally but it’ll be defense where this game will be won.
The central defensive duo of the experienced Raul Albiol, now 36 years old, and the brilliant Pau Torres, are the most important players for Villarreal and they’ll need to be at their best to neutralize Robert Lewandowski again.
Torres is a great player and he'll need to be a wall at the back and also help transition the ball into midfield if his team stands any chance of leaving the Allianz with a semifinal spot in the Champions League.
Villarreal has lost three of its past four away games which will give the Bundesliga giants a lot of hope for this return leg. Goals are one thing this team knows how to do with Bayern having already scored 86 goals in the league, 16 more than anybody else.
It also outscored everybody in the Champions League group stage too, netting 22 goals in just eight games. That first-leg loss was only the club's third defeat in all competitions since mid-November and its recent Champions League experiences will be fresh in its mind.
In the last round, the club was lucky to get a 1-1 draw with RB Salzburg in the first leg before taking it back to the Allianz Arena and cruising to a 7-1 victory. I’m not convinced it’ll win by six goals this time but I’m very confident that Julian Nagelsmann’s team will be victorious.
In my view, Byern is the third-best team on the planet behind the English duo of Man City and Liverpool and has more than enough talent to turn this around, especially against a Villarreal team who is far from elite.
Nagelsmann will line Bayern up in the usual 4-2-3-1 with Thomas Muller and any two from Leroy Sane, Kingsley Coman, and Serge Gnabry on either flank and supporting Lewandowski.
With that strike force, it’s very tough not to see the team scoring plenty of goals and putting this tie out of sight. I’m not sure I’d personally want to wager on something at odds of -390 but I just can’t suggest anything else.
Prediction: Bayern Munich moneyline (-390 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
We’ve already touched upon Bayern’s incredible goalscoring record this year but it really can’t be overstated with Robert Lewandowski being one of the game's great goalscorers. The Polish striker has scored 12 goals in nine Champions League games so far to go alongside his 32 Bundesliga goals. He’s a sensation and he’ll be back on the scoresheet, at least once, on Tuesday.
When Bayern plays at the Allianz Arena it's nearly always in high-scoring games having had Over 2.5 goals in 80% of home games in the Bundesliga this season, scoring at least three goals on its own on eight occasions.
Its record in the Champions League has been incredible at home. In the four home games across the group and last 16 stages, it's beaten Dynamo Kyiv 5-0, Benfica 5-2, Barcelona 3-0, and most recently RB Salzburg 7-1. We’ll see goals on Tuesday even if -250 isn’t the most attractive of odds.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals (-250 at DraftKings)
Best bet
If you want a near guarantee then bet on Robert Lewandowski to score. It feels inevitable that he’ll add to his insane goalscoring numbers this season, but at -300 to score anytime I can’t really claim it’s the best bet on Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal.
If you’re looking at a booking you have to consider a Villarreal player and one man really stands out, Etienne Capoue. He is a tough-tackling midfielder and he'll do whatever he can to stop his opponents from scoring.
With all of Bayern’s attacking talent as well as Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich, it’s going to be a long day at the office for Capoue. At +225 he’s huge odds to get a booking, with some books offering it as short as +150. Back the 33-year-old Frenchman to find his name in the referee’s book.
Pick: Etienne Capoue to get booked (+225 at Bet365)
