Brentford vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: Buzzing Bees Capitalize on Reds' Road Woes

Liverpool have held onto their Top 4 hopes but their road form has been woeful. Heading to the Community Stadium, Brentford aren't going to be an easy out for the Reds — and our picks expect a result at home for the Bees.

Tom Oldfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tom Oldfield • Betting Analyst
Dec 31, 2022 • 14:24 ET • 4 min read
Bryan Mbeumo Brentford FC EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

From the small sample size last week, the World Cup break has re-focused both Liverpool and Brentford, setting the stage for a feisty battle as they square off on Monday.

Liverpool are very much in the midst of the fight for the Top 4, though they needed two own goals to edge past Leicester on Friday. 

Brentford played their part in a 2-2 thriller against Tottenham on Monday and followed it up with a 2-0 win over West Ham on Friday. They’re now sweating on the fitness of top scorer Ivan Toney, who scored in both games but was stretchered off late against the Hammers with a knee injury.

Find out more in our free Brentford vs. Liverpool picks and predictions ahead of this Monday, January 2 matchup.

Brentford vs Liverpool best odds

Brentford vs Liverpool picks and predictions

If you’re searching for the biggest reason that Liverpool are playing catch-up in the league this season, look no further than their poor form away from the fortress of Anfield. Even after winning at Villa Park last week, the Reds have only picked up eight points from their seven Premier League away games.

Despite the visitors’ star power, things still aren’t quite clicking in the final third. Mohamed Salah scored a tap-in against Villa but was held in check against Leicester, while Darwin Nunez missed a hatful of chances in both games. Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota are still out, and new signing Cody Gakpo can’t yet be registered.

The Bees have claimed some big scalps at the Gtech Community Stadium this season, including the unforgettable 4-0 win over Manchester United in August and a 2-0 win over Brighton in October, to go with the shock win away to Manchester City in November. Even if Ivan Toney misses out, Bryan Mbeumo will be a handful for the Liverpool defense and Josh DaSilva is a willing runner from midfield.

With Liverpool still short of their best, it opens the door for a Brentford team with no fear. I like the Bees to be up for this game and continue their impressive form against the Premier League big boys.

My best bet: Double chance - Brentford win/draw (+137 at bet365)

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Brentford vs Liverpool side analysis

This Brentford squad has likely achieved too much to be underestimated these days, but it bears repeating that Thomas Frank’s men went into the Etihad Stadium and won prior to the World Cup break. Don’t sleep on the quality in this Bees squad.

As outlined above, I like Brentford in this underdog spot. Salah and Liverpool — who start the day five points ahead of their hosts — are clear favorites with the oddsmakers, but the Reds’ fragility away from home is a cause for concern. 

Then there’s the question of whether Klopp will look to rest or rotate his squad given all the fixtures ahead — despite the temptation to do so, I expect him to view this as a game where he can’t afford to tinker too much with his lineup. Still, Andy Robertson and Harvey Elliott are slight doubts after picking up injuries against Leicester.

The Bees have a clear identity and have taken 13 points at home this season. Plus, there was a lot to like about their 2-0 win at West Ham, weathering the early storm and then finishing clinically when they got their chances, even with several important players sidelined by injury.

Brentford vs Liverpool Over/Under analysis

Both these teams love to get men forward — Liverpool’s full-backs will be overlapping like usual, while Brentford’s 3-5-2 formation gives their wing-backs the same freedom on the counter-attack. Though the Bees only had 37% of the possession against West Ham, they still managed six shots on target.  

Recent numbers suggest we’ll get goals too. Liverpool’s two games since the restart hit the Over of 2.5 goals (even if Leicester netted all three on Friday), while Brentford have scored twice in each of their games.

Toney’s possible absence would be a big blow for the hosts. He’s netted 12 times in the league already this season and has responded well after being left out of England’s World Cup squad and facing off-field headlines. Keep an eye on the injury reports leading up to the game as an available Toney would make the Over a particularly attractive wager.

Brentford vs Liverpool game info

Location: GTech Community Stadium, Brentford, England
Date: Monday, January 2, 2022
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network

Brentford vs Liverpool key injuries

Brentford: Aaron Hickey LB (Questionable), Ivan Toney ST (Questionable), Kristoffer Ajer CB (Out), Frank Onyeka CM (Out), Shandon Baptiste CM (Out).
Liverpool: Andy Robertson LB (Questionable), Harvey Elliott CM (Questionable), Diogo Jota AM (Out), Luis Diaz (AM (Out), James Milner CM (Out), Roberto Firmino ST (Out).

Brentford vs Liverpool recent form

Teams Last five matches
Brentford Brentford L-W-D-L-D
Liverpool Liverpool L-W-W-L-L

Brentford vs Liverpool weather

The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions on Monday, with temperatures in the mid 40s.

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Tom Oldfield - Covers
Betting Analyst

Tom Oldfield’s sports writing journey over the past 20 years has taken him from the Premier League and Champions League to the NFL, NBA, WNBA and MLB, with a wide range of articles and betting previews. Tom has worked closely with London’s Sportsbeat sports news agency as well as (thrillingly!) covering the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA championship run, and he has appeared on BBC World Service and The Back Page podcast.

A graduate of the University of Nottingham in the UK, he is the author of biographies on Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Nadal, Gary Neville and Cesc Fabregas, and he co-authors a long-running series of children’s soccer books with his brother, Matt.

As a regular bettor across the top sports leagues, particularly with FanDuel and bet365, he is well versed on all the major markets and the next big game is rarely far from his thoughts. The best betting advice he has received is to monitor multiple sportsbooks to grab the best possible value.

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