Today's clash between Brighton and Manchester City will have the eyes of the soccer world fixed on the Amex Stadium, as the match could have huge implications in the Premier League odds.
Anything short of victory for Roberto De Zerbi’s side would put the final nail in the coffin of their European title hopes. They sit six points clear of Newcastle and come into this fixture on the back of a four-match winless run.
Manchester City enter today four points adrift of Arsenal with two matches in hand and must win to keep pace. However, Pep Guardiola will be forced to contend without the services of Erling Haaland, whose 20 goals are joint-most in the league.
Our Brighton vs. Manchester City picks on Thursday, April 25 explain why Haaland’s absence shouldn’t be an issue for the defending champions.
EPL predictions for Brighton vs Man City
My best bet
Manchester City -1.5 (+104 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Brighton can be forgiven for their recent poor results. After all, their injured players alone would comprise a mid-table Premier League side. With the likes of Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March sidelined, it’s been tough sledding for De Zerbi.
His side has scored just two goals during their four-match winless run, losing twice and drawing the other two. That includes a 2-1 defeat at Liverpool and a 3-0 loss at home to Arsenal. It’s that latter defeat — and the scoreline—that explains why I’m backing Manchester City to win by multiple goals on Thursday.
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta plays a very similar style to Pep Guardiola, which makes sense considering he came up under Pep. Meanwhile, City will have a more free-flowing style than they typically have the past two seasons, with Erling Haaland ruled out on Wednesday due to injury.
While he’s one of the best strikers in the world, statistics show that City are actually getting more victories without him. While their goals per match slightly dip, his absence makes them more multi-faceted and tougher to defend as a whole.
Without the big Norwegian being the focal point, the City forwards and midfielders tend to interchange much more often. This leads to players getting into dangerous situations, and that’s a winning recipe against Brighton and their defense.
While the likely absence of Phil Foden in the starting lineup is of concern, there are more than enough offensive threats on this Man City team. Between Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva in midfield and Julian Alvarez at striker, they shouldn’t lack chances. In fact, they’ve scored at least four goals in three straight league outings, and Haaland has just two of them with one being a penalty.
Arsenal registered nearly 3.4 xG in their win over Brighton, and that’s with the Seagulls having both of their starting fullbacks. Both Tariq Lamptey and Pervis Estupinan miss out due to injury, and that’s going to hurt them both in defense and attack.
I don’t see Man City being denied multiple goals here, and Brighton’s attack is simply gutted with their midfield absences and lack of threat from their fullbacks. Those fullbacks will have their hands full with Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish out wide, and Manchester City will thrive as they win this one going away.
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Brighton vs Man City same-game parlay (SGP)
Manchester City -1.5
Jeremy Doku Over 2.5 shots
Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist
Doku has played just 273 minutes in City’s last five matches in all competitions, but he’s managed 16 shots in that timeframe. With the Belgian winger averaging an attempt every 17 minutes, I like Doku's shot prop when he matches up against a fill-in at either fullback position for Brighton.
Kevin De Bruyne took five shots against Luton in his last Premier League outing and had 1.04 xA without a teammate cashing in. With three goals and an assist in his last four starts in all competitions, and Haaland out of the squad, expect KDB to be involved in one of the goals.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brighton vs Man City odds
Brighton vs Man City live odds
Brighton vs Man City opening odds
- Moneyline: Brighton +500 | Man City -225
- Draw: +375
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-200) | Under 2.5 (+163)
Brighton vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 17 in the EPL, winning 13 of those matches.
- The Over 2.5 goals is priced at -200; you’ll need to go to the Asian total of 3.25 to get a decent price.
- Manchester City have scored 4+ goals in three straight Premier League matches.
Brighton vs Man City game info
| Location: | Amex Stadium, Brighton, England |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | DAZN |
| Weather: | 52F, 17-24 mph, 20% chance of POP |
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D-L-D-L-W |
 Recent EPL Form |
W-W-W-W-D |
Brighton vs Man City key injuries
Brighton: Kaoru Mitoma M (Out), Tariq Lamptey D (Out), Pervis Estupinan D (Out), Solly March M (Out), Billy Gilmour M (Out).
Man City: Erling Haaland F (Out), John Stones D (Doubtful), Phil Foden M (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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