Burnley vs Watford Picks and Predictions: Relegation Sides Stall With Too Much to Lose

Burnley vs. Watford doesn’t leap off the page as a must-watch game but you’d be wrong for thinking that. The only Premier League game this weekend sees the league’s bottom-two teams meet in a game that really is a must-win for both sides.

So who will come out on top in this ‘six-point’ game? Don’t miss our Burnley vs. Watford tips and predictions to find out.

Burnley vs Watford match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Burnley vs Watford betting tips

• Prediction: Draw (+225)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (-138)
• Best bet: Ashley Westwood to get booked (+210)

Predictions made on 2/3/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Burnley vs Watford game info

• Location: Turf Moor, Burnley, England
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock

Burnley vs Watford betting preview

Weather

It’ll be grim weather in Burnley when this game kicks off at 6:00 p.m. local time. It’ll be dark and cold, with the temperature around 45 degrees. The area would have seen rain throughout the day and heavy rain is forecasted to last throughout the game.

Injuries

Burnley: Ashley Barnes F (Out), Charlie Taylor D (Questionable), Johann Gudmundsson M (Out), Matej Vydra F (Out).
Watford: Emmanuel Dennis ST (Out), Ismaila Sarr F (Out), Nicolas Nkoulou D (Out), Kwadwo Baah M (Out), Peter Etebo M (Out), 

Burnley vs Watford predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

It may be a cliché but when Burnley welcomes Watford to Turf Moor on Saturday it will be a true “six-pointer”. The two teams are fighting it out for Premier League survival and both sit bottom of the league table.

Burnley, bottom on just 12 points are four points off Norwich, who are currently safe in 17th. In their favor is that they’ve played just 18 games compared to Norwich’s 22. Watford also has games in hand over Norwich, albeit just two. The concern for both clubs is that the third team in the relegation zone, Newcastle, has just spent heavily in the January transfer window following controversial Saudi Arabian investment in the club. In addition, the other teams around the edge of the relegation zone, Everton and Leeds, are both historically bigger teams and it would be shocking to see either of them go down.

So how did both teams end up with so many games in hand? In short, it’s because of the ongoing public health crisis and a number of teams getting games postponed because of positive tests within their squad. Despite the festive period being the busiest part of the season, Burnley has played just six Premier League games since the start of December. Now, they’re in a difficult position and have to make up those missing games despite having one of the league’s smaller squads. They’ve had a number of draws in the past couple of months but worryingly for Sean Dyche and his team, they’ve not won three points since beating Brentford at home at the end of October.

Watford also comes into the game in bad health having not won a game since that shock 4-1 win over Manchester United midway into November. In that time, they’ve even struggled to pick up draws and their last game, a 3-0 home defeat to fellow strugglers Norwich could be a result they look back on at the end of the season with regret. That game saw Claudio Ranieri dismissed and former England manager Roy Hodgson arrive as his replacement.

Watford will be without a number of players but worryingly they’ll be without Emmanuel Dennis, who got sent off against Norwich and is suspended and the brilliant Ismaila Sarr who is still at the African Cup of Nations with Senegal. That’ll leave Joshua King as the main man in the Hornets attack and their main goalscoring threat against Burnley.

Burnley managed to keep hold of their defensive pairing James Tarkowski and Ben Mee in the transfer window, which will be a huge boost for the club as both men have been integral to the team’s solid backline in recent seasons. They did lose striker Chris Wood to relegation rivals Newcastle but his replacement, Wout Weghorst, is expected to make his full debut in this game.

When Roy Hodgson was announced at Watford we knew he’d improve their awful defensive record, which was tied for third-worst in the league. Throughout his career, he’s focused first on making teams tight at the back. With that in mind, I’d expect this Watford to look very different from what we saw in their last game. They’ll be well drilled and tight with a bank of four at the back who’ll look to frustrate Burnley. 

Burnley is always tight at the back and their defensive record, superior to those also at the bottom of the league, will give them hope of staying up, especially if Weghorst can boost their firepower up top, which was the area in which they were really struggling.

This game is hugely important for both teams and the sad truth is that whoever loses this game will become favorite for relegation. We’re now in February and these teams need to start picking up wins. With two defensive managers in charge, I think we’ll see both teams do their best not to lose, Burnley is favored but the draw looks like the best value, even if a draw probably doesn’t really help either side.

Prediction: Draw (+225)

Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, this game sees two relegation-threatened teams meet who are both coached by defence-orientated managers. That’s a recipe for a low-scoring game and it’s very hard to see anything but a 1-0 win for either team or a low-scoring draw.

At odds of -138 you’re not going to win big but it’s the smart way to bet when two poor teams meet in a tetchy game that could decide their futures. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 57.1% of Burnley’s games at Turf Moor this season. It’s also landed in 55.6% of Watford’s games on the road too. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 (-138)

Best bet

This game is going to be tense and defensive with neither team risking the opposition scoring. That bodes well for a card with Craig Pawson in charge. Pawson has officiated 14 games in the Premier League this season dishing out an average of over four cards per game.

There are two Burnley players that leap off the page to get booked in this game. Josh Brownhill and Ashley Westwood have had five and six yellow cards respectively this season and with both players likely to start in the middle of the park there is an argument to back either, or maybe both, to get booked in this hugely-important fixture.

We’ll be backing Westwood at odds of +210. The 31-year-old, an experienced Premier League veteran isn’t quite as quick as he used to be and could well see himself in Craig Pawson’s book if he puts in any mistimed challenges.

Pick: Ashley Westwood to get booked (+210)

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