For the first time in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, Canada suffered a setback as the table leaders lost in San Jose to Costa Rica on Thursday. That loss meant they would have to wait a few days longer to secure an automatic berth to the World Cup in Qatar — but gives them the chance to do so on home soil.
Standing in Canada's way of sparking a national celebration on Sunday is an already eliminated Jamaica team, whose qualification hopes were officially ended a few days ago.
We break down the matchup and the soccer betting market with our Canada vs. Jamaica picks and predictions, with kickoff set for March 27.
Canada vs Jamaica game info
• Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, March 27, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, OneSoccer
Canada vs Jamaica betting tips
Click on each pick for complete analysis
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Canada vs Jamaica match odds
Canada: -290
Jamaica: +700
Draw: +400
Total: 2.5
Over: -130
Under: -105
Canada vs Jamaica betting preview
Weather
It'll be a cold but dry afternoon in Toronto as Jamaica and Canada square off. Temperatures at kickoff are expected around 25 degrees Fahrenheit, with winds up to 25 miles per hour.
Injuries
Canada: Alphonso Davies LW (Out), Mark-Anthony Kaye CM (Out).
Jamaica: None.
Canada vs Jamaica predictions
Side analysis
Canada are forced to wait a little longer to officially clinch their place at the World Cup this winter after a loss to Costa Rica — their first in the final round of qualifying — but the result was hardly discouraging. A raucous atmosphere in San Jose presented difficult circumstances and for the first time in qualifying, Canada seemed to shrink a little as Costa Rica dominated early play.
Those circumstances then got a whole lot worse in the 34th minute, when midfielder Mark-Anthony Kaye was sent off for a second yellow card. Then, the Canada we have come to expect showed up. The sending off galvanized what had been a flat group, as Canada grew into the game and began to threaten more often. However, the lack of a controlling centerback (they started just one natural CB) reared its head repeatedly in the first half and that culminated in a goal for Costa Rica just before the whistle.
The second half was practically all Canada, with the CONCACAF leaders doing absolutely everything but scoring. There were two shots that hit the frame of the goal, an excellent attempt from Stephen Eustaquio which fizzled wide, a missile from Richie Laryea that forced a strong save, and a skied volley from six yards out. Despite playing a man down, Canada fought incredibly well and won the expected goals battle, 1.51 to 1.18.
So, while the longer wait for qualification is frustrating, Thursday was fairly definitive proof we won't see a discouraged Canada team on Sunday. Certainly not at a sold-out BMO Field rocking with Canadian supporters, and certainly not in a game that heavily favors them.
Sunday's opponents are an already eliminated Jamaica team, making the trip from Kingston after a draw with El Salvador on Sunday. Jamaica were dealt a tough hand with the timing of this qualifying round, as a Europe-heavy squad were left out early due to COVID quarantine rules. By the time they could call up a full squad, they were already longshots and three losses in three games in January finished them off.
Jamaica have already lost away to Mexico and the USA in this round of qualifying, and as they play out the string, they'll take another loss from CONCACAF's third heavyweight as Canada clinches their place at the World Cup.
Prediction: Canada (-290)
Over/Under analysis
While Canada have topped 2.5 goals on just three occasions so far in qualifying, it's difficult to go against the Over here.
It's a team overflowing with attacking talent and that talent shines at home, where Canada are more front-footed. They've scored multiple goals in every home match except for two, the partnership of Jonathan David and Cyle Larin up top has thrived in recent games, and they'll have Sam Adekugbe, who has become a creative force at left wingback, back after he was suspended for their previous game.
This is one of the biggest days in men's soccer history in Canada. The stadium will create an unbelievable atmosphere and the players will feed off it, as they have throughout qualifying. To have that intensity and energy against a Jamaica team littered with young players getting their first taste of international action leaves a decent chance the moment causes Sunday's visitors to cave.
Neither side of the total is a great play but the Over is the better pick of the two.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-130)
Best bet
Two things will be true in Toronto on Sunday: Canada will be absolutely raring to go, as they have been at home throughout this cycle, and Jamaica will be playing out a formality of a match.
Winning your games at home is of the utmost importance in CONCACAF qualifying and Canada have made that into an art form. They've won five of six home games, dropping points only in the first game in September. They've beaten the USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panama — the second, third, fourth, and fifth place teams in CONCACAF — at home and were rarely tested in those games. Jamaica, on eight points from 12 games, are well off that level.
And, this is far from a full-strength Jamaica team. Already eliminated, the Reggae Boyz are using the final window to experiment with their squad. Interim manager Paul Hall has called up a squad largely made up of domestic and young players, as they look ahead to another qualifying cycle in the near future.
While it's the right decision for the future of the Jamaican program, it'll only further what was a major gulf in talent between these two teams. Canada have already won five games by multiple goals in qualifying and on Sunday, they'll do it a sixth time and punch their ticket to Qatar in emphatic fashion.
Pick: Canada -1.5 (+100)
