Tottenham will play their second London derby in less than a week when they travel to Stamford Bridge and face Chelsea today.
Only Manchester United has beaten Spurs more than Chelsea in the Premier League odds, and Stamford Bridge has been their fortress. Just once have the Blues fallen at home in their last 33 league outings against their rivals, but their lengthy absentee list will put that record to the test.
Our Premier League picks and Chelsea vs. Tottenham predictions for May 2 explain why the home faithful are likely to see history repeat itself in more ways than one.
EPL predictions for Chelsea vs Tottenham
My best bet:
Cole Palmer anytime goalscorer (+106 at TonyBet)
My analysis
It’s safe to say that Cole Palmer enjoys playing at home. The blue-clad supporters at Stamford Bridge have seen him bag a hat trick in each of his last two appearances, with seven goals total against Manchester United and Everton.
No Chelsea player has ever put together a run of form at home since the Premier League came into existence. Palmer has found the back of the net in seven consecutive home league appearances and eight consecutive starts at the Bridge.
In fact, you have to go back to Chelsea’s stunning 2-0 defeat to Brentford in late October to find the last time Palmer started at home and didn’t end up on the scoresheet. I’ll gladly take him at plus odds to continue that stellar run against Spurs on Thursday.
Tottenham don’t allow a ton of shots compared to some teams, but the scoring chances they concede are quite dangerous. Spurs are giving up the third-highest non-penalty expected goals per shot this season, despite allowing the fifth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes. The high line they employ often puts them at risk of being hurt on the attack, and their refusal to switch out of it in the 4-1 defeat to Chelsea earlier this season despite being down to nine players was stunning.
But this is as much about Palmer as it is the Spurs defense, which will be missing multiple key players this weekend. Palmer trails in the Golden Boot race by a goal, and he’s picking up much of Chelsea’s attacking slack with their absurd list of injuries. He’s attempted 48 shots in his last nine starts in all competitions, including four from the penalty spot.
Tottenham have conceded multiple goals in five of their last seven Premier League away fixtures, with Newcastle putting four past them in their last road excursion. With Palmer’s propensity to fire at will and Spurs being unable to keep opponents from scoring, I’ll back Chelsea’s best offensive weapon to once again come through at home.
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Chelsea vs Tottenham same-game parlay (SGP)
Palmer anytime goalscorer / Palmer 4+ shots
Over 3.5 goals
Chelsea to win or draw
Palmer’s shot volume has been outstanding, and he’s taken at least four shots in six of his last seven matches. At Stamford Bridge, his last four home fixtures have seen him register a whopping 23 shots. We’ll back him to get at least four.
Goals are expected in this one, with the Over 3.5 priced at minus odds. Only one of Chelsea’s last 11 matches have seen fewer than four goals, while each of Tottenham’s last three fixtures have featured 4+ goals. Throw in Chelsea’s injuries at the back and I expect a high-scoring affair.
I like this match to end in the 2-2 or 3-2 realm, with Chelsea getting a result. Spurs simply cannot find a way to win consistently away from home, with just one victory in their last seven league away matches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Chelsea vs Tottenham odds
Chelsea vs Tottenham live odds
Chelsea vs Tottenham opening odds
- Moneyline: Chelsea +120 | Tottenham +200
- Draw: +275
- Over/Under: Over 3.5 (-130) | Under 3.5 (-105)
Chelsea vs Tottenham side and Over/Under analysis
- Chelsea are +125 favorites, while Spurs are +190. There is some value in the draw at +310.
- Tottenham have won just one of their last 33 Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge.
- The Over 3.5 is priced north of -130, and the line continues to move up as goals are expected.
- There have been 3+ goals in Chelsea’s last eight and in 15 of Tottenham’s last 16.
Chelsea vs Tottenham game info
| Location: | Stamford Bridge, London, England |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-2-2024 |
| Time: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | DAZN |
| Weather: | 58F, 7-15 mph winds, 50% chance of POP |
 Recent EPL form |
D-L-W-D-W |
 Recent EPL form |
L-L-W-D-W |
Chelsea vs Tottenham key injuries
Chelsea: Reece James D (Out), Thiago Silva D (Out), Christopher Nkunku F (Doubtful), Enzo Fernandez M (Out).
Tottenham: Timo Werner F (Out), Destiny Udogie D (Out), Ryan Sessegnon D (Out), Oliver Skipp M (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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