It’s win or go home for the Americans after their stunning loss to Panama, altering their Copa America 2024 odds.
Uruguay sit atop the group, and their 5-0 trouncing of Bolivia saw five different players find the back of the net, but manager Marcelo Bielsa wants to see more from his team, as three of those goals came in the final 13 minutes.
Find out why that is bad news for the American defense in my USA vs Uruguay prediction for July 1.
USA vs Uruguay picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Darwin Nunez anytime goalscorer (+200 at Betano)
My analysis
Marcelo Bielsa lamented his team’s last performance, stating there were things he was unhappy with while insinuating they really only had a 15-minute spell where they turned the match on its head. Even though the manager is suspended for this match, I expect Uruguay to come out strong and give their best players plenty of minutes, including Darwin Nunez
Given I’ve got multiple wagers on Nunez to win the Golden Boot at Copa America, I’ve been thrilled as a bettor to back him — and win — to score in their opening two group fixtures. While he’s wasteful to the point of comedy when he lines up for Liverpool, he becomes an entirely different player with La Charruas.
Nunez has scored two goals from 12 shots over the first two matches, with five of those being on target. He’s come away with at least 0.8 xG in both outings and has now scored in seven straight matches for Uruguay, including friendlies, with a total of 10 goals in that span.
The Americans must win and will have to do so without Weah. This means Berhalter has some serious decisions to make and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him tinker either with the center-back pairing or the formation — or perhaps both.
The Americans haven’t defended poorly at this tournament, but they’ve not faced a striker like Nunez. His size and speed will cause problems, and as the match progresses and USA takes more risks, it’ll just give him better opportunities.
I’d bet him to score at even money as I did against Bolivia, so there’s no way I’m passing him up at +200 odds. Race to Betano and take Nunez to score before his price comes down.
Christian Pulisic odds, prop for today
My best bet
3+ shots (+115 at Betano)
My analysis
With his team needing to win, all eyes fall on “Captain America” to save the day — and possibly manager Gregg Berhalter’s job. For bettors, that means an opportunity to hit one of his props at plus odds.
While Pulisic didn’t have a shot against Panama, it’s not hard to understand why. He created three chances despite being a man down, but for the majority of the match, he was defending and managed only 15 passes on the day.
Prior to that, he was firing at will. He had three shots and a goal against Bolivia while scoring a goal from six shots in their friendly draw with Brazil. Pulisic played just 45 minutes in the 5-1 beatdown at the hands of Colombia but still managed two shots.
In fact, the matches against Colombia and Panama are the only times in his last six national team appearances he’s failed to attempt at least three shots. And with Weah’s suspension, he’ll be looked upon even more to create opportunities for the Americans. That’s why I’m taking him to attempt at least three shots for his best prop.
Pulisic is priced at -175 to put a shot on goal, which carries little value. However, at +240 he has a decent price to find the back of the net. He’s fourth among all Americans in that market but has the added benefit of taking free kicks.
One market to keep an eye on is assists. He’s priced at +335 to set up a goal, and with him taking corners and free kicks, it’s added value to the number.
USA vs Uruguay same-game parlay (SGP)
Darwin Nunez anytime scorer
Christian Pulisic 3+ shots
Uruguay double chance
As an American, I’ll be rooting hard for USA to defeat Uruguay and reach the knockout stages. As a bettor, I have little faith in that happening.
Bielsa employs a pressing style Uruguay are thriving under, and one the Americans tend to struggle with. The USMNT has shown issues with bad turnovers in this tournament, much as they did against Colombia, as they were overwhelmed and punished for it.
With Team USA pushing for a goal in this one, I expect we’ll see similar mistakes turned into opportunities for Uruguay’s dangerous front line.
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USA vs Uruguay odds
| USA | Uruguay | |
|---|---|---|
| +152 | Moneyline | +205 |
| Over 2.5 (+110) | Total | Under 2.5 (-133) |
| +235 | Draw | +235 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-30.
USA vs Uruguay game info
| Location: | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Monday, July 1, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Channel: | FS1 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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