Liverpool vs Leicester City Picks and Predictions: Full Strength Reds Hunt the Foxes

Liverpool are nearly back at full strength as Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane return from AFCON but the Reds' fantastic season didn't stop in their absence. It won't stop Thursday, either, as we explain Liverpool's edge over Leicester City in our EPL picks.

Alistair Corp - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Alistair Corp • Publishing Editor
Feb 9, 2022 • 22:02 ET • 4 min read
Diogo Jota Liverpool FC EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Former Liverpool manager and current Leicester City boss Brendan Rodgers famously got the Reds oh so close to the mountain top in the Premier League, before a slip cost them their place in a title race nearing its climax. His tenure in charge at Anfield would last just a couple more seasons, as that slip hung over his Liverpool teams.

After taking Leicester City to the verge of the Top 4 last year, Rodgers' team has slipped again but this time, in the league table, as the Foxes head to Anfield in 10th and as a heavy Premier League betting underdog on Thursday.

Rodgers wasn't able to deliver Liverpool supporters a grand cause for celebration then but now, our picks and predictions expect plenty of celebrating on Merseyside as the Foxes visit Liverpool.  

Liverpool vs Leicester City match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Liverpool vs Leicester City betting tips

Predictions made on 2/9/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Liverpool vs Leicester City game info

Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
Date: Thursday, February 10, 2022
Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network, DAZN

Liverpool vs Leicester City betting preview

Weather

It will be a brisk night Merseyside for Leicester City's visit to Anfield to face Liverpool, with temperatures at kickoff expected to be around 45 degrees Fahrenheit.

Injuries

Liverpool: Mohamed Salah RW (Questionable), Divock Origi ST (Questionable), Joe Gomez CB (Questionable), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain CM (Questionable), Jordan Henderson CM (Questionable), Sadio Mane LW (Doubtful).
Leicester City: Nampalys Mendy CM (Doubtful), Jonny Evans CB (Out), Jamie Vardy ST (Out), Timothy Castagne RB (Out), Ryan Bertrand LB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out).

Liverpool vs Leicester City predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

Due to relatively modest transfer business and a year postponement, the African Cup of Nations hung over Liverpool for several years and in every transfer window. The whispers and nerves floated through the brisk Merseyside air, seeping into the thoughts of passers-by: How would Liverpool handle a month-long stretch without Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane?

AFCON has come and gone, with Mane's Senegal crowned champions of the region over Salah's Egypt. Both players enjoyed a successful January and so too did Liverpool, who faced the long-feared period without their star wingers directly, handily winning both Premier League games and advancing to the EFL Cup final. Now it's business as usual for the league's second-place team, as they hunt down a dominant Manchester City side.

First in their sights are the Foxes, who have seen their points per game drop to 1.3 this season from 1.7 a year ago. With that drop has come a drop in league status — they aren't European contenders capable of beating anyone on a given day, they're now just a number of clubs existing in the middle of the table. Those teams, oh those poor teams, are gleefully pounced upon by the league's giants. And do these red giants loom.

Liverpool have been phenomenal this year, seemingly a repeat of three seasons ago in which they boldly went toe-to-toe with Manchester City but finished second-best, despite enjoying a season worthy of a champion in nearly any other year. They entered these midweek fixtures nine points back of City with a game in hand, despite the leaders just finishing a 12-match winning streak.

Thursday's hosts boast the league's best attack, better than even that of a high-flying City team, while their defensive record is firmly in the Top 3 in any given metric. They are an elite team on the global stage, in one of the sport's great venues which will be rocking under the floodlights.

To the home team and supporters it's Anfield, home of Liverpool Football Club. On Thursday, to Leicester City, it is simply a buzzsaw. 

Prediction: Liverpool (-463)

Over/Under analysis

Liverpool's brief spell without Salah and Mane began in worrying fashion, as they played to a sleepy 0-0 draw with Arsenal. Those 90 minutes served to shake off whatever cobwebs they may have had, however, as the next four games in all competitions resulted in 11 goals, with multiple goals scored in each. Diogo Jota, tasked with carrying the attack, continued to be downright fantastic in a Liverpool shirt, scoring twice in the second leg against Arsenal and adding another over the weekend.

Fullbacks Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson are rounding back into the form that saw them both achieve double-digit assists two seasons ago, while a relentless midfield is getting healthier with Thiago's return. Oh, and January closed with the signing of highly thought of winger Luis Diaz, who had scored 14 goals and added four assists for Porto this year prior to heading to the Prem. 

While Mane isn't available, everyone else is and there are no concerns around an attack that has averaged a league-high 2.6 goals and 2.5 expected goals per game this year. Unless you're Leicester City.

One of this year's biggest disappointments, Leicester have been sunk by a mistake-prone defense, as they've conceded the seventh-most goals and fifth-most xG this year. Last season's two outstanding performers, centerback Caglar Soyuncu and goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel, are both enduring poor seasons leaving little reason to hope for improvement.

Liverpool should put multiple goals past Schmeichel on Thursday but with a total sitting at 3.5, we have to lean toward the Under. To go Over would require faith in Leicester's attack against Liverpool's defense, and that just doesn't exist here, especially with Jamie Vardy still out. Liverpool's defensive record is excellent at Anfield, conceding 0.6 goals and just over 0.73 xG per game.

In another well-rounded home performance, this match will go Under.

Prediction: Under 3.5 (-121)

Best bet

We like Liverpool to win but the value on the moneyline just isn't there. We expect Liverpool to score multiple goals against Leicester but the total is set high enough to give us pause looking toward the Over. So, this best bet is just right to marry backing Liverpool and a healthy number of goals. 

We've detailed Liverpool's superb season already but to reiterate, in comparison to Leicester City. They average 2.6 goals and 2.5 expected goals per game, while a solid Foxes attack average 1.7 goals and 1.5 xG per 90. Defensively, Liverpool have conceded 0.8 goals and 1.04 xG per game, compared to Leicester's marks of 1.85 and 1.82.

Regardless of which metric you want to use, whatever lens you want to look through, Liverpool exist in a different world to Leicester City this season.

Of Liverpool's seven wins at Anfield this year, six have been by multiple goals. Thursday will bring another multiple-goal win. 

Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-150)

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Alistair Corp Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Alistair has been working as a publishing editor on the Covers content team since January 2021. In addition to his work as an editor, he helps cover the NFL, the NBA, Formula 1, and soccer. Prior to joining Covers, he worked as a freelance writer covering the NFL.

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