Liverpool vs Napoli Picks and Predictions: Napoli in Great Position to Continue Streak

It’s all to play for in Group A of the Champions League on Tuesday, as Liverpool welcomes group leaders Napoli to Anfield. The Reds need an emphatic win to claim the top spot in the group, while the Italian side needs just to secure a result or lose by two or less to avoid the draw’s dreaded second spot.

One team is clearly in better form coming into the match but offers terrific value to get a result. Find out how that plays to your advantage in our Liverpool vs Napoli picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 1.

Liverpool vs Napoli best odds

Liverpool vs Napoli picks and predictions

After narrowly missing out on the Premier League title a season ago, the outlook in Liverpool is quite concerning. A shocking 2-1 defeat to Leeds United at the weekend saw Virgil Van Dijk lose a Premier League match at Anfield for the first time since he joined the club in January of 2018.

Injuries have caused quite a few selection issues for manager Jurgen Klopp, robbing him of multiple key starters. Forwards Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota have left him bare at the top, while a merry-go-round of banged-up players in the midfield has made it difficult for him to deploy his strongest side. It has led to extremely inconsistent play, especially in attack, as Liverpool have scored multiple goals just once in their last five in all competitions.

Making matters worse is the issue of finding a strong partner for Van Dijk with Joel Matip on the shelf. Joe Gomez was woeful against Leeds, getting exposed repeatedly on the break. It was the same story in their 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest last weekend. 

While Liverpool are reeling, Napoli are rolling. Not only have the Blues yet to taste defeat this campaign, but they’ve also won 13 straight matches in all competitions. They’re arguably the hottest team in all of Europe at the moment and are scoring for fun.

Whereas Liverpool are trying to patch together an attack, Napoli have their choice of two in-form strikers to lead the line. Saturday saw Victor Osimhen bag a hat-trick, his fourth straight match with a goal, while Giovanni Simeone registered a first-half brace in their 3-0 win over Rangers last week to make it three matches on the trot with a goal. 

Any pair of wingers including Hirving Lozano, Khvicha “Kvaradona” Kvaratskhelia, Giacomo Raspadori, or Matteo Politano could be named alongside one of the two strikers. Kvaradona was integral in Osimhen’s success on Saturday, setting up two of his strikes while scoring one of his own to give him 16 goal involvements already this campaign.

Whoever starts on the left side of Napoli’s attack will likely be the focal point. Teams have been successful with exploiting the space behind Trent Alexander-Arnold, which is how Napoli rolled to an easy win to open Champions League play as Kvaradona set up a goal and linked up with Osimhen and Petr Zielinski all night.

With the Premier League title and a top-four finish both quickly getting beyond their grasp, Liverpool will likely have to focus all their efforts on winning this competition if they hope to be part of it next season. To do so will mean needing to take chances, as they must win this match by three goals or more if they hope to avoid drawing against a group winner in the Round of 16. On the other side, Napoli need just a result to ensure the top spot in the group, but this isn’t a side that’s going to sit back.

Nothing Liverpool has shown me of late tells me that they’re the side to end this historic run. Personally, I will be playing Napoli to win yet again and looking for a return of three times my wager. However, your safest bet is to simply take Napoli to get a result of any kind.

My best bet: Napoli double chance (+105 at bet365)

Liverpool vs Napoli side analysis

Liverpool’s stunning defeat to Leeds ended a run for Van Dijk that may never be seen again and marked their first defeat at home in all competitions this season. However, Liverpool have dropped points three times this year, all in the Premier League.

As we discussed earlier, Napoli haven’t suffered so much as a draw in their last 13 matches in all competitions. That includes six straight matches away from home, having scored multiple goals in all but one of those fixtures. They’ve also won seven of eight on the road this year.

Liverpool have not beaten Napoli in any of their last three attempts in the Champions League. Napoli have won two of those meetings at home and secured a 1-1 draw in their last visit to Anfield in 2019.

Liverpool vs Napoli Over/Under analysis

Liverpool’s been struggling for goals of late. Their 3-0 win over Ajax last week ended a three-match run where they scored one goal or fewer across all competitions. They’ve failed to score multiple goals in each of their last three home matches and seven of their 15 group-stage match goals came in a single outing.

Napoli’s 4-0 rout of Sassuolo at the weekend marked the eighth time in their last 10 matches that they’ve found the back of the net at least three times, and they’ve scored at least four goals in four of their last seven. That includes a 4-1 romp over Liverpool to open Champions League play, part of a 20-goal haul through five group-stage affairs.

The total in this match is elevated given the firepower on display of late from the visitors, with the Asian total of 3.0 being the closest to level odds you’ll find. If you’re looking to play the Over, the trends are on your side at least. Liverpool have scored at least two goals in 15 of their last 18 Champions League matches, while Napoli have scored at least three times in all five group-stage matches.

Liverpool vs Napoli game info

Liverpool vs Napoli key injuries

Liverpool: Luis Diaz F (Out), Diogo Jota F (Out), Joel Matip D (Out).
Napoli: Salvatore Sirigu GK (Out), Amir Rrahmani D (Out).

Liverpool vs Napoli recent form

Liverpool vs Napoli weather

Players and fans will be miserable on Tuesday night, as rain is expected from late afternoon well into the second half of the match. Temperatures will feel like they’re in the upper 30s, and wind gusts could reach into the mid-20s and impact play.

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