Luton Town vs Liverpool Predictions and Picks: Liverpool Make Quick Work of Luton

The second of Sunday’s two Premier League games sees Luton vs Liverpool at Kenilworth Road. On paper and in the EPL odds this is a real mismatch. Free-scoring Liverpool entered the weekend in the Champions League spots while Luton are in the relegation zone.

This is a game Liverpool should win but will it be that easy? Don’t miss our EPL predictions for Luton vs Liverpool on Sunday, November 5. 

Luton Town vs Liverpool best odds

EPL predictions for Luton Town vs Liverpool

I wouldn’t forgive you if you weren’t hugely excited for Sunday’s Luton vs Liverpool game in the Premier League, but I’d urge you to reconsider. Liverpool are -450 favorites, which makes sense given the vast gulf between these teams, both in terms of quality and league position, but I still believe that this will be a good game.

Luton only have one win on the season and just five points in the bank, leaving them in the relegation zone, but in Kenilworth Road they have a stadium that can intimidate opponents. They’re a hard-working team but are likely to struggle against this Liverpool side.

Liverpool looks hugely improved this season, they entered the weekend sat fourth in the Premier League table but they’ve played brilliantly at times. They’ve scored 23 goals, tied for the second most in the league, and their nine goals conceded is tied with Spurs who came into this weekend at the top of the table and only one worse than Arsenal and two worse than Man City, who both sit above them. The midfield signings have helped Liverpool hugely this season and they’re providing the platform that the rest of the team can build upon but you’d have to say that it looks like Jurgen Klopp might finally have figured out his attack, which has felt like a jumbled collection of players since Sadio Mane left and a structural change was needed. Our best bet will focus on somebody who has been key to that improvement, Darwin Nunez, and we’ll be backing him to score.

It probably isn’t a surprise to see me backing a Liverpool player to score here. Luton have conceded 20 goals so far this season, an average of two per game, it’s worth noting that only three teams have an inferior record to this. In the past four games we’ve seen three teams score at least two against Luton, including Nottingham Forest, Burnley, and Aston Villa. The only team who didn’t were Spurs who had 10 men.

Step forward Darwin Nunez. The Uruguayan has cut a confusing figure since arriving at Liverpool from Benfica last summer. His first season in the Premier League saw a striker who was capable of both sublime finishes and missing the simplest of one-on-ones, all of that combined with a chaotic mentality could see him flit between being hot-headed and going missing. This season though he looks more focused and more streamlined. He’s still capable of missing some easy goals but you can see his quality more consistently. Of his nine Premier League games, only four were starts but he’s scored four times and assisted three more. Likewise, he’s scored another three across the Europa League and Carabao Cup. 

He's in hot form too, having scored in each of his past three games, including bagging a goal against Bournemouth midweek despite coming on as a substitute, and having been rested. He’ll be back in the starting lineup here and has the quality and more importantly, the form, to cause Luton serious issues. It’s time to back Liverpool’s Uruguayan striker to find the back of the net once again.

My best bet: Darwin Nunez anytime goal (-122 at TonyBet)

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Luton Town vs Liverpool same-game parlay

Darwin Nunez anytime goal

Liverpool to win by 2+ goals

Marvelous Nakamba to be booked

+550 at bet365

We’ve got a +550 Same-Game Parlay for Luton vs Liverpool and it’s a bet that you can enjoy throughout the 90 minutes.

As always we’re going to start with our best bet for the game, which is for Darwin Nunez to score. You’ve read the reasons above but in short, he’s in red hot form having scored in each of his past three games and now faces a Luton team who have averaged two goals conceded per game. This is the sort of match that he should be able to feast in.

Next up we’re backing Liverpool to win by two or more goals. Liverpool have scored at least two goals in eight of their 10 Premier League games this season and now face a Luton team who are giving up goals for fun. Despite Luton having home advantage I think Liverpool should win this by two or three goals with ease.

Finally, we’re going to round off our SGP by backing Luton’s Marvelous Nakamba to get booked. The Zimbabwean international has picked up three yellow cards so far this season and now faces a tough task against Liverpool’s new-look midfield. He commits an average of two fouls per game and given the step up in quality against the midfield you’d think there’s a high chance of a booking.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Luton Town vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis

There’s really not any value to be had on the moneyline market for this game. I can’t see anything but a Liverpool win but odds of -450 just aren’t enticing and don’t offer value. You get a far bigger price on the draw at +560 or even a Luton win at +1000 but I’ve not seen anything from these teams in recent weeks to think that either of those things happen.

Given that Luton have given up 20 goals this season it’s not really a surprise to see that the Total Goals market has Over 2.5 goals as heavy favorite at -312. Seven of their 10 games this season have hit the Over, although given that it’s only happened in half of their four home games, there’s a solid argument that Under 2.5 goals is the best value bet at +210. Personally, I can’t see the Under landing, and I wouldn’t back the Over at -312, so I’ll stay away from this market. There’s better value to be had on backing Both Teams to Score – No at -105, with the expectation that Liverpool can shut out Luton.

Luton Town vs Liverpool game info

Luton Town vs Liverpool key injuries

Luton Town: Albert Sambi Lokonga CM (Out), Mads Andersen CB (Out), Reece Burke CB (Out), Jordan Clark CM (Questionable), Amari’I Bell CB (Questionable)
Liverpool: Thiago CM (Out), Andy Robertson LB (Out), Luis Diaz LW (Out), Stefan Bajcetic CM (Questionable)

Luton Town vs Liverpool recent league form

Teams	Recent Premier League Form
Luton Town	L-D-L-L-W
Liverpool	W-D-L-L-W

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