Manchester United vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: Liverpool Paints the Town Red

Manchester United are reeling, and serving up a perfect get-right spot for likewise-struggling Liverpool. See why the defense will continue to bleed goals at Old Trafford, as our EPL betting picks predict a home humbling.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Aug 20, 2022 • 11:54 ET • 4 min read
Liverpool EPL soccer betting picks
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Monday sees a meeting of two of the biggest teams in the Premier League with Manchester United welcoming Liverpool to Old Trafford. These fierce rivals have both had terrible starts to their Premier League seasons and this game is hugely important for both.

At the end of this game, either Man Utd or Liverpool will be winless in the Premier League, that simply doesn’t happen, and neither Erik ten Hag or Jurgen Klopp will be happy if it’s their team. 

Don’t miss our Manchester United vs. Liverpool EPL picks and predictions for Monday, August 22.

Manchester United vs Liverpool match odds

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Manchester United vs Liverpool betting tips

Predictions made on 5/20/2022 at 5:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Manchester United vs Liverpool game info

Location: Old Trafford, Manchester, England
Date: Monday, August 22, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network

Manchester United vs Liverpool betting preview

Weather

There’ll be rain in the early hours of the day but by the time this kicks off at 8pm local time it’ll be dry and cloudy with temperatures in the mid 60s.

Injuries

Manchester United: Victor Lindelof (CB), Anthony Martial STR (Questionable).
Liverpool: Joel Matip CB (Out), Ibrahima Konate CB (Out), Diego Jota STR (Out), Thiago CM (Out), Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain CM (Out), Curtis Jones CM (Out), Darwin Nunez S (Out), Roberto Firmino S (Questionable), Naby Keita CM (Questionable).

Manchester United vs Liverpool predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

Manchester United and Liverpool are two of the biggest teams on the planet, but both have more than this matchup to be concerned about, after terrible starts to their Premier League seasons.

That optimism around Erik ten Hag’s arrival crumbled after the first two games when they lost to both Brighton and Brentford, giving up six goals in the process and scoring just one. This was the most humbling Premier League start in the club’s history.

Meanwhile, over in Liverpool, there was a feeling that they’d again be close to Manchester City and potentially beat them to the title. Then came draws against newly promoted Fulham and Crystal Palace. The club look to miss Sadio Mane, now of Bayern Munich, more than perhaps some expected, especially after the arrival of Darwin Nunez, who got sent off against Palace. Liverpool fans are starting to get jittery.

There are some extenuating reasons behind these poor starts. For Liverpool, you cannot overstate their injury problems. They come into this missing seven players, with Naby Keita and Roberto Firmino also doubts. Virgil van Dijk is without his best central defensive partners, and without Thiago, the midfield looks devoid of creativity. 

For United, the rot starts and ends with the ownership. The Glazers have been leeching off the club since they purchased it, only doing the bare minimum to ensure that their cash cow could still keep paying them dividends. The club has been horrifically mismanaged and now they’re paying the price. The Man Utd fans are planning a protest during this game in which they’ll walk out and empty the stadium mid-game. However, it’s worth remembering that before this fixture last season we saw unrest which forced the game to be postponed — there’s a reasonable chance of that on Monday, too.

Now to the game itself, we’re likely to see both teams set up in various versions of 4-3-3. It’ll be Joe Gomez who’ll partner Van Dijk this week, and we should again see the young Harvey Elliott in the center of midfield to cover the number of injuries there. It’s also expected that we should see Roberto Firmino start for Liverpool, with Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah on either side of him. It didn’t work well against Fulham two weeks ago, but you’d expect better here.

Manchester United may have confirmed the signing of Casemiro from Real Madrid, but the brilliant Brazilian won’t be able to play in this game and will instead watch from the stands. That leaves a likely midfield of Bruno Fernandes, Christian Eriksen, and Fred. That is a midfield three that would concern me if I were a United fan, and there’s a good chance they get overrun by a Liverpool midfield who are more dynamic and harder-working. Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Cristiano Ronaldo has the makings of a good front three, but we’re yet to see it work this season. And then there’s the team defense, which has been an embarrassment so far. 

There are growing reports that Harry Maguire will be benched for Raphael Varane, who’d partner Lisandro Martinez. It’s also likely we see Luke Shaw dropped for the new summer signing Tyrell Malacia. The idea of Martinez and Malacia alongside each other is generally a concern given their short heights, but Liverpool aren’t blessed with height in attacking positions and they might get away with it here.

When you look at these two teams, who have both had bad starts, only one has a world-class player who is actually in form, or looks like they fully understand the manager’s philosophy and can take his instructions onto the pitch. That team is Liverpool, and despite not managing to win this season, it would be a huge shock if they didn’t leave Old Trafford with three points on Monday.

Prediction: Liverpool to win (-160 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Both of Manchester United’s games have gone Over 2.5 goals so far this season, as have half of Liverpool’s games. With both teams having exciting attacking talent, you’d have to expect we go Over again here.

Man Utd’s backline has been disgraceful so far this season, conceding an average of three goals per game, and both of those matches were against teams who are midtable at best, not anybody as accomplished as this Liverpool team. 

Last season, Liverpool beat Man U 9-0 across both league games, and in this fixture they won 5-0. It’s really not hard to see another high-scoring and embarrassing defeat for the Red Devils here, so take the Over.

Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (-190 at FanDuel)

Best bet

In backing Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 goals, we’ve had two picks that don’t offer the best odds. That’s why I’m here with the best bet in this game — a great wager that you can get odds of +150 on.

I’d really recommend backing Liverpool to be winning at halftime and fulltime. We’ve seen Liverpool be slow at the start of games so far, but there’s little chance of that in a game of this importance. Jurgen Klopp’s team will be ready and attacking United from the first whistle. They’re a far superior team and should be leading wire-to-wire. 

At +150 you’re getting great value here, so back Liverpool to be ahead after both halves.

Pick: Liverpool/Liverpool – Halftime/Fulltime (+150 at bet365)

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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