In the race for European football, just eight points separate third place from eighth in the Premier League standings. That’s why Sunday’s matchup between Newcastle United and Manchester United could go a long way towards deciding who secures a top-four finish and an automatic Champions League spot.
Newcastle sits just two points back of fourth-place Tottenham with two matches in hand, and a win on Sunday could draw them level on points with Manchester United and ahead on goal differential. Meanwhile, the visitors are playing just their third Premier League fixture since the end of February, and will hope for a repeat of their 2-0 win over the Magpies in the Carabao Cup final.
It’s going to be a tense affair at St. James’ Park, and we’re here to help you find the best angles in our Newcastle United vs Manchester United betting picks and predictions for Sunday, April 2.
Newcastle vs Manchester United best odds
Newcastle vs Manchester United picks and predictions
Anytime players embark on an international break, there’s risk of injury as well as a risk of killing off promising form. For Newcastle, the break may actually end up being a bit of a blessing. The club used the break for the players to rest up and recuperate in Dubai, and it’s led multiple starters to be ready for this clash. They’ll also have goalkeeper Nick Pope, who missed the Carabao Cup final last month due to suspension.
For Manchester United, their issues started before the break. Both defender Raphael Varane and winger Alejandro Garnacho went down with injuries prior to international play. Then, midfielder Marcel Sabitzer picked up a small injury while playing in Austria’s match against Azerbaijan and missed their second match. His status for Sunday’s match is in the air, which causes real problems for manager Erik ten Hag’s midfield selection.
Casemiro will serve the second match of a four-match ban, while Christian Eriksen is not yet ready to return to the team. Should Sabitzer be unable to go, it leaves them with only three fit midfielders. In a bit of good news, ten Hag revealed star forward Marcus Rashford should be good to go after suffering a thigh injury that forced him out of the England squad.
Why is this important for our best bet? Nearly all of Manchester United’s defensive success this season has come with a spine of Casemiro, Varane, and Lisandro Martinez. With two of those three out, it leaves them exposed. Making matters worse, the Red Devils have been gashed away from Old Trafford this season. While they have the fourth-most points on the road, their 27 goals conceded are the fourth-most in the league. In their five away defeats in the league, Manchester United have conceded a staggering 23 goals.
Newcastle have lost just once this season at home in 13 Premier League matches — and that was against Liverpool in a match that saw them end with 10 men. After a strong defensive start, they’ve conceded in three straight at home, and in each of their last eight matches in all competitions.
Manchester United simply aren’t the same side without Casemiro. They’re more exposed at the back, they don’t maintain possession properly, and they simply lack the ability to control proceedings. They were fortunate to defeat Fulham in the FA Cup before the break, and it’s unlikely they will be able to stop Newcastle’s scoring threat.
On the other side, Rashford and the newly-returned Anthony Martial will still pose a real threat going forward, with Bruno Fernandes pulling the strings. Newcastle are leaking goals, and while they’ve allowed just nine goals at home in league play, they’ve recently conceded at home to both Wolves and West Ham.
Therefore, your best bet is to parlay the Over 2.5 goals with both teams to score. Some books offer this as a pre-built parlay while others may require you to build it, but either way, it’s your best route to profit from what should be an entertaining match.
My best bet: 2.5 goals + both teams to score Yes parlay (+120 at bet365)
Looking to bet on EPL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best soccer betting sites for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Newcastle vs Manchester United side analysis
Newcastle will also be without their leading goal scorer, as Miguel Almiron suffered an injury as well prior to the international break. Winger Anthony Gordon is also expected to miss out. However, striker Alexander Isak returned and scored a pair of goals in their 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest in their last match, and winger Allan Saint-Maximin and defender Sven Botman should also both make a return per manager Eddie Howe. They’ll be needed to help Newcastle push their win streak to three matches following a run of five without a victory.
For the visitors, Manchester United have just one victory in their last four away Premier League outings. They’ll want to forget the last one, a 7-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool. Martial could replace Wout Weghorst in attack after being out for a long spell, while midfielder Donny van de Beek joins Eriksen and Casemiro on the sidelines. Scott McTominay scored twice for Scotland against Spain and will likely start in the engine room.
Newcastle have lost just twice in their last 21 Premier League fixtures, but they’ve not beaten Manchester United in any of their last seven meetings. Newcastle have also won just two of the last six at St. James’ Park, but are favored to take all three points in this matchup. Man U will likely struggle with the combo of Isak and ASM, and Newcastle should get the win.
Newcastle vs Manchester United Over/Under analysis
We’ve already discussed the Total, given the best bet included the over 2.5-goal tally. The price is evenly split at -110 on each side, as picking a total following an international break can always be a bit tricky to begin with.
Rashford’s availability for Man United will play a key role in their likelihood to score goals. With Garnacho out, and Antony and Jadon Sancho being quite inconsistent, he represents the bulk of their goal-scoring threat.
As for the hosts, the threat of ASM and Isak will cause real problems for a Manchester United defense that struggles to deal with pace without Casemiro and Varane, should the latter miss out. Add in the set-piece threat of fullback Kieran Trippier, and the odds of Newcastle scoring multiple goals is quite strong.
Newcastle vs Manchester United game info
| Location: | St. James' Park Stadium, Tyne, England |
| Date: | Sunday, April 2, 2023 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
Newcastle vs Manchester United key injuries
Newcastle: Miguel Almiron M (Out), Ryan Fraser M (Out), Anthony Gordon F (Doubtful), Nick Pope GK (Probable), Sven Botman D (Probable).
Manchester United: Casemiro M (Out), Christian Eriksen M (Out), Alejandro Garnacho F (Out), Marcel Sabitzer M (Questionable), Donny van de Beek M (Out), Marcus Rashford F (Probable).
Newcastle vs Manchester United recent form
| Teams | Last five matches |
|---|---|
 Newcastle |
W-W-L-L-D |
 Manchester United |
D-L-W-W-D |
Newcastle vs Manchester United weather
Sunday will see pleasant conditions in the northeast of England. Temperatures will be in the low 50s with plenty of sunshine, and there is no chance of rain in the forecast.
