Portugal will be back at full strength after relaxing in the group stage finale as they take on an undefeated and upset-minded Slovenia side in the Round of 16 on Monday.
The Portuguese eased into the knockout stage with two early wins, allowing them to rest most of their starters. Meanwhile, Slovenia come in as a major underdog after drawing all three of their group-stage matches to earn a berth into the Round of 16.
I’ll break down how bettors should approach this matchup in my Portugal vs. Slovenia predictions and Euro 2024 picks for Monday, July 1.
Portugal vs Slovenia picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Slovenia Under 0.5 goals (-143 at Betano)
My analysis
Roberto Martinez had the luxury of sitting most of his starters in the final group-stage match, with the notable exception of having Cristiano Ronaldo on the pitch to chase a goal that never came. Diego Costa remained in goal and Joao Palhinha patrolled the midfield, but other than that, it was a reserve team that took the field for the Portuguese in what was still a surprising loss to Georgia.
That loss should do two things for Portugal. First, it will remind them not to take any opponent lightly. Secondly, it should mean Martinez won’t make any changes from his typical squad, which means no worries about Antonio Silva giving away goals as he did on Wednesday.
That will make life difficult for Slovenia, who haven't shown much attacking prowess so far in Euro 2024. While the Slovenians squeaked through on three draws, they only scored (and allowed) two goals in total in three matches. In their final match against England — the best opponent they’ve played in a competitive match in some time, and a reasonable comp for Portugal in many rating systems — they managed just one shot on target with 26% possession.
It will be a tall order for Slovenia to suddenly turn up the pressure against a Portuguese team that has them outgunned at nearly every position. Benjamin Sesko posts a threat, and goalkeeper Jan Oblak may keep them in the game. But figuring out how Slovenia will get the ball to Sesko or anyone else to get one past Costa is a question that’s difficult to answer.
I’m taking Costa to pick up a clean sheet in a relatively straightforward Portugal win.
Cristiano Ronaldo odds, prop for today
My best bet
Cristian Ronaldo anytime goalscorer (-133 at Betano)
My analysis
If Ronaldo wants to add to his record haul of 14 career Euro goals, this may be his last, best chance. The road will only get harder from here, and while Slovenia don't allow goals cheaply, we know Portugal will be more than anxious to get their 39-yard-old legend off the mark before they start running into championship favorites.
I considered backing Ronaldo to pick up the first goal of the match. However, I think his best opportunities will come if and when Portugal is already in control of the game.
Ultimately, it’s a good bet that Ronaldo hits the net here and adds to his European legend one more time before retirement.
Portugal vs Slovenia same-game parlay (SGP)
Portugal to win first half
Cristiano Ronaldo anytime goalscorer
BTTS - No
I’m combining my best bets to come up with a reasonable same-game parlay for Monday’s match. That begins with looking for Portugal to pick up a clean sheet, and the easiest way to do that in an SGP is to bet "no" on both teams to score. Since we’re going to be betting on Ronaldo (and Portugal) to score, that’s the equivalent of our Under 0.5 goals for Slovenia.
We’ll also bet on Ronaldo to score at some time during the match. Ronaldo is already the all-time leading scorer in the tournament’s history, and his teammates will be looking to let him add to his legend one last time whenever they get the opportunity.
But that effort will only ramp up when Portugal can afford to let loose. That’s why I’m throwing in a bet for Portugal to win the first half. That should correlate well with Ronaldo scoring at some point in the game, adding significant value to an SGP that has a solid chance of hitting each leg.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Portugal vs Slovenia odds
| Portugal | Slovenia | |
|---|---|---|
| -263 | Moneyline | +825 |
| Over 2.5 (-102) | Total | Under 2.5 (-120) |
| +365 | Draw | +365 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-29
Portugal vs Slovenia game info
| Location: | Frankfurt Arena, Frankfurt, Germany |
| Date: | Monday, July 1, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | Partially cloudy, 0% POP, 64 degrees, 1.9 mph WSW winds |
Not intended for use in MA.
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