There are two games remaining in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, two games for the USMNT to right the wrong from the previous cycle, during which they failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
The U.S. entered this window in a good position to earn an automatic berth for Qatar 2022 and that position was strengthened Thursday, as they went into Estadio Azteca and left with a draw. They'll now return home with a chance to clinch, depending on how other results go. First, as the U.S. learned four years ago, they need to take care of their own business.
We break this game down and dive into the soccer betting market with our USA vs. Panama picks and predictions, with kickoff set for March 27.
USA vs Panama game info
• Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, FL
• Date: Sunday, March 27, 2022
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS, Paramount+
USA vs Panama betting tips
Click on each pick for complete analysis
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USA vs Panama match odds
USA: -260
Panama: +650
Draw: +350
Total: 2.5
Over: -110
Under: -120
USA vs Panama betting preview
Weather
Panama and the U.S. will have ideal conditions Sunday evening for their World Cup qualifier, with temperatures at kickoff expected to be around 75 degrees Fahrenheit, with just 25% humidity.
Injuries
USA: None.
Panama: None.
USA vs Panama predictions
Side analysis
This qualifying round has been far from consistent for the USMNT. The results have been fairly consistent but the play has not been. The U.S. have been an empty calories attack, dominating possession but it rarely led to chance creation of any consequence. It's funny, then, that a 0-0 draw at the Estadio Azteca was among their best performances to date.
The USMNT were in a tough spot even before the first whistle Thursday, missing key players up and down the pitch. Brenden Aaronson, who had been a consistent figure on the wing in qualifying, was out. Weston McKennie, who is arguably their most important player and certainly most irreplaceable, was out with an injury suffered with Juventus. Sergino Dest, who for all his faults provides excellent width and pace from right back, was out.
Despite the shorthanded squad and intense atmosphere, the U.S. held their own against Mexico — and should have won. Frankly, the USMNT turned Mexico into the U.S., maintaining possession but turning it into little value, simply recycling the ball in the attacking third. Mexico created 0.55 expected goals, which is the worst output they've had in a home qualifier since 2014.
El Tri would have lost, too, had it not been for a spectacular miss. U.S. striker Jordan Pefok was delivered a golden opportunity from about six yards out — and promptly mishit it so poorly it veered toward the corner flag. Between that and a great chance for Christian Pulisic on the break, the USMNT had two quality chances to find the edge, finishing the game with 1.36 xG.
While they didn't find the goal to take what would have been a massive three points, the performance in itself is encouraging ahead of a pivotal home meeting with Panama. The Panamanians remain in the fight, just a point back of Costa Rica for fourth place and the inter-continental playoff spot, but they're in a brutal spot here.
Thursday saw Panama fall out of fourth after drawing with Honduras, who entered this window with a qualifying record reading three draws, eight losses, and a -17 goal difference, at home. That is a result that will have a ripple effect on performances, no doubt, and they now head to American soil, where the USMNT have taken 16 points from a possible 18.
On the verge of qualification, the U.S. won't let it slip now.
Prediction: USA (-260)
Over/Under analysis
We've largely avoided taking the Over in the U.S.'s games so far in qualifying, with the lack of a proven striker glaring after Ricardo Pepi's ascension for the national team slowed following a bright start. The high rate of chances they've created simply hasn't led to a high rate of goals, with the USMNT averaging 1.3 goals per game (first-place Canada are averaging 1.58, for comparison).
However, we're taking the Over on the 2.5 goal total here for a couple of reasons. Despite the U.S.'s goalscoring struggles on occasion, they've scored multiple goals in five of 12 qualifiers (and four of six home games). In Dortmund's Gio Reyna and Chelsea's Pulisic, they have two elite-level attackers who can help mitigate the lack of a clinical finisher. The former, still just 19 years old, was unbelievable against Mexico.
For their part, no team's games in qualifying have seen more goals than Panama, with an average of 2.4 per 90. Their defensive quality could struggle considerably against the pace and skill of Pulisic and Reyna, but going forward, they could test the U.S. defense, too.
In ideal conditions in Orlando, the game should be flowing, expansive, and feature a few goals at least.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-110)
Best bet
There isn't really any value in taking the USMNT to win on the 3-way moneyline but taking them at -1.5 (+125) does provide value. This is a play that is leaning on positive regression from the U.S. after a productive night against Mexico, in which quality chances weren't converted, and a play on Panama feeling absolutely devastated from the awful result at home to last-place Honduras.
Of the USMNT's five home wins in qualifying thus far, three have come by multiple goals (against Mexico, Honduras, and Jamaica). The two one-goal wins, meanwhile, came in freezing cold conditions in Columbus (a 1-0 win over El Salvador) and a 2-1 win over Costa Rica in which they were caught sleeping, conceded inside the first minute, then were unchallenged afterward.
A multiple-goal-win should be the expectation for the U.S., and at plus-money, it offers value in the betting market.
Pick: USA -1.5 (+125)
