Wolves vs Manchester United Predictions & Picks for Thursday's EPL Matchup

Two teams in desperate need of three points meet at Molineux Stadium on Boxing Day but Sam Farley believes the points will be shared.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Dec 25, 2024 • 11:00 ET • 4 min read
Joao Gomes Wolves EPL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Christmas may be over, but football fans have plenty to look forward to with an exciting Premier League slate, including the clash between Wolves and Manchester United.

New Wolves manager Vitor Pereira got off to a strong start with a win last week and now faces a big test against a Manchester United side undergoing a major rebuild. Our Wolves vs. Manchester United prediction? A tightly contested match that ends in a draw.

Check out my Premier League picks for Thursday, December 26. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET, with coverage available on NBC and Peacock Premium.

EPL predictions for Wolves vs Manchester United

My best bet:
Draw (+280 at TonyBet)

My analysis

The ‘Boxing Day’ slate is one of the most important and loved parts of the Premier League season and this year we have 16 of the 20 teams taking part. There are several great matchups but one of the most interesting sees Wolves vs Manchester United at Molineux. Both teams have different managers in the dugout from what they started the season with, with Vitor Pereira and Ruben Amorim now in charge of their respective clubs.

Pereira had a great start to his tenure at Wolves with a dominant 3-0 win on the road against Leicester City on Sunday. He’ll be relishing the chance to have his first home game in charge of Wolves but Man Utd should provide better opposition than Leicester who struggled last time out.

Over in Manchester, there are clear improvements in the team, with a better style of play more visible under Amorim, but there are clearly big issues too and the team still looks a long way off what is expected from a Manchester United team. We’re now nine games into the Amorim era and United have lost four games in all competitions, including four of their last six in all competitions.

When it comes to this game Man Utd are odds-on favorites with the sportsbooks but you can’t be confident betting on them given their recent form. They’ve struggled to contain teams and a big concern is the fact that United’s opponents have scored in seven of nine games for the new manager. It’s not helped by injuries which have resulted in a different back three being used nearly every week, not allowing them to build any chemistry or understanding. 

You can’t have a leaky defense against Wolves. They may be in the relegation zone but they’ve scored 27 goals, by far the most in the bottom eight of the table and level, or more than six teams inside the top half of the table. Their biggest issue has been defensively too, where they can’t stop conceding goals, as evidenced by the fact they’ve allowed 40 goals, a league-high, in just 17 games.  

Neither team is doing a good job at the back, so we’re going to see goals. The reality is that neither side is great in any area, and both teams would be happy with avoiding defeat, making a draw a realistic possibility that offers far better odds than an away win. 

Wolves vs Manchester United same-game parlay (SGP)

Draw

Over 2.5 goals

Joao Gomes to be carded

We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals land in the past six Wolves games in the Premier League, as well as the past three for Man Utd. There’s been a total of 67 goals in 17 Wolves’ games this year, while Man Utd have been scoring goals but weak at the back.

The final leg sees us backing Joao Gomes to get booked. The Brazilian has had five yellow cards in 16 games for Wolves this season, so he has a recent history of getting booked. The midfield battle will be huge in this game and Gomes will want to impress his new manager Vitor Pereira.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Wolves vs Manchester United odds

Wolves vs Manchester United live odds

Wolves vs Manchester United opening odds

  • Moneyline: Wolves +290 | Manchester United -108
  • Draw: +280
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-323) | Under 2.5 (+265)

Wolves vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis

  • Man Utd have lost three of their past four in the Premier League.
  • Man Utd have beaten Wolves in seven of the past eight meetings between the teams in all competitions.
  • Over 2.5 goals have hit Wolves last six Premier League games. 
  • Over 2.5 goals have hit Man United's last three Premier League games. 

Wolves vs Manchester United game info

Location: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, England
Date: Thursday, 12-26-2024
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fubo
Weather: Text
Wolves  recent EPL form L-L-L-L-W
Manchester United  recent EPL form W-L-L-W-L

Wolves vs Manchester United key injuries

Wolves: Yerson Mosquera CB (Out), Boubacar Traore CDM (Out), Sasa Kalajdzic STR (Out), Pablo Sarabia FWR (Out), Mario Lemina CM (Quesitonable).
Manchester United: Luke Shaw LB (Out), Mason Mount CAM (Out), Victor Lindelof CB (Out), Matthijs de Ligt CB (Questionable).

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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