Germany vs Japan World Cup Picks and Predictions: Gnabry Wars With the Samurai Blue

Group E is the Group of Death at the 2022 World Cup, and it’s imperative for Germany that they get off to a good start and beat Japan, with Spain — the World Cup odds favorite to top the group — to come in the next game. Leave this game without a point, and their World Cup is already in serious jeopardy.

Will Japan be able stop Germany? Don’t miss our World Cup picks for Germany vs. Japan.

Germany vs Japan odds

Germany vs Japan picks and predictions

The team who finishes second place in Group E will likely face Belgium in the Round of 16, so it’s essential that Germany start off by taking three points in this game, especially with Spain up next. The question is which Germany will turn up, with them looking awful at times in recent games but still having a squad stacked with great talent. 

One of those brilliant players is Serge Gnabry. The 27-year-old has blossomed into one of the Bundesliga’s best talents since swapping Arsenal for Bayern Munich. He’s best as a right-sided forward but he can play anywhere in the attacking positions, even as a false nine.

With injury ruling Timo Werner out of selection for the German squad, it’s made picking their starting lineup even trickier. Werner was likely to have been the central striker but it’s now unclear if they’ll use either Youssoufa Moukoko or Niclas Fullkrug, who are both untried at this level, or use Gnabry or Kai Havertz as a false nine.

Whichever lineup is selected by Hansi Flick, we’re certain to see Gnabry start somewhere. The Japanese team has a wealth of dynamic attackers but in defense, they’re aging and lack speed. That’ll play into the hands of Gnabry, especially if he’s on the right and up against Yuto Nagatomo, who is now 36 years old.

Gnabry has 36 caps for the national team and in that time, he’s scored 20 goals. This season he’s taken another leap and become a more complete goal scorer, netting eight times in 15 appearances, only 10 of which were starts. 

Gnabry is everything a modern attacker needs to be. He’s quick, a great finisher, and dangerous when running at defenses with the ball at his feet. He loves to cut inside and shoot and against this slow Japanese defense, I think there’s a great chance we see him score. It’s certainly worth backing at +187.

My best bet: Serge Gnabry to score anytime (+187 at bet365)

Germany vs Japan side analysis

Germany are strong favorites at -195, with the draw an unlikely +375 and a Japanese win looking like a huge shock at +650. Germany should win this but in the World Cup, it’s never quite that easy.

It’s hard to know exactly what lineup we’ll see from Hansi Flick. Apart from Manuel Neuer in goal it really feels like anybody could start. The backline isn’t locked in and the midfield and forward positions are so stacked with talent that you don’t know exactly what each unit will look like. The only thing you can be fairly confident on is that they’ll likely line up 4-2-3-1.

Japan have a slow defense, something that will be tested by Germany’s pace and dribbling ability. Japan also don’t really have a clinical striker, something which could haunt them in Group E. However, they do have a number of very technical and talented attacking midfielders who can create chances as well as finish them and they’ll need to do that if they have any hope of getting anything from this game.

While Germany should win, they’re not worth betting at the odds they’re currently at. This is a team who won just once in six Nations League games recently and you really can’t be totally sure what the team will look like. Until we know more about this German team, after the Japan game, we’ll avoid betting on them to win.

Germany vs Japan Over/Under analysis

The bookies are expecting goals with Over 2.5 at -138 and Under 2.5 goals at +124. In those six Nations League games, we saw Germany score 11 goals and concede nine. It’s also noticeable that they conceded at least one goal in each of those games, showing that they aren’t as strong as they traditionally are.

With that telling us there’s a good chance of a Japanese goal, and seeing the talent on the German team, it makes Over 2.5 goals look like an appealing bet. 

Germany vs Japan game info

Germany vs Japan key injuries

Germany: None.
Japan: None.

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