Spain vs Germany World Cup Picks and Predictions: Now Or Never For Germany

This is only the second game for each team in the group but it already feels like a World Cup knockout. If Japan beat Costa Rica earlier in the day then it means a Spanish would eliminate Germany from contention to make the next round. 

World Cup odds expect a good amount of goals to be scored in this contest.

Can La Roja send Germany home or will the Germans manage to salvage their hopes in Group E? Don’t miss our World Cup betting picks and predictions.

Spain vs Germany odds

Spain vs Germany picks and predictions

The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Germans when they face Spain on Sunday. If Japan beat Costa Rica earlier in the day, then Germany could be eliminated with a loss. 

Both teams started their World Cup adventures very differently in Group E. Germany opened things with a 2-1 defeat to Japan despite taking a lead. It was a frustrating performance for Germany and one in which they never really looked assured despite being the better team for extended stretches.

Just an hour after that game finished, we saw Spain kick-off against Costa Rica, thrashing them 7-0 and laying down a marker for the rest of the tournament. Spain were impressive, particularly in front of the goal where they were more clinical than many, including me, expected. However, they were playing Costa Rica, who were woefully bad. Sunday’s game against Germany will give us a better idea of where this team is at in its development.

The injuries to Timo Werner and Marco Reus in the buildup to this tournament have taken two of their most clinical players out of a potential lineup, with Werner, who was set to be the team’s striker, a real loss. In his absence, they played Kai Havertz up top. This is something we’ve seen at the club level with Chelsea, and it really doesn’t play to his strengths. I’d like to see Havertz playing off somebody else but it’s unlikely we see that and Hansi Flick will stick with a formation that has served him well throughout his career.

Germany have a gulf of attacking talent in the midfield and wide positions and they’ll need to make best use of that to beat Spain, but the reality is that this Germany team isn’t to be feared. They’re packed with talent but we’re yet to see anything to suggest they will be able to cause problems at this tournament.

Grabbing +140 on Spain to win feels like robbery. Spain have the ability to dominate possession and strangle teams, even those of the quality of Germany. 

If the Spanish are anywhere near as clinical as they were against Costa Rica, they'll win.

My best bet: Spain to win (+140 at PointsBet)

Spain vs Germany side analysis

Spain set up to retain the ball and the midfield Barcelona trio of Sergio Busquets, Gavi and Pedri have the understanding of each other that comes with playing together each week. Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo on the flanks offer a directness that allows them to attack the fullbacks but the use of Marco Asensio as a false nine was the most impressive part of their win against Costa Rica.

Many, including me, expected Alvaro Morata to start but without using a traditional striker, it allowed Spain to play differently. Having a player with his ability on the ball dropping deep and interchanging passes with Gavi and Pedri created lots of space to exploit. Germany are a far tougher test than Costa Rica and it’ll be interesting to see if this approach is still as effective, but I think it will be.

The biggest unknown is how Spain’s backline will deal with Germany, especially given that Germany’s 4-2-3-1 against their 4-3-3 might mean more players in the gaps between midfield and defense. Luis Enrique might try a formational shift but I’m not sure.

Instead, I imagine he’ll drop Rodri. The Man City midfielder played at CB against Costa Rica, partly down to his ability on the ball, but a more traditional defender might be advised against Germany.

Spain vs Germany Over/Under analysis

Both teams’ most recent games went for Over 2.5 goals, with Spain hitting Costa Rica for seven and Germany vs. Japan finishing with three. I don’t have a strong opinion on this but I’d lean towards backing it going Over. 

Both teams are more than capable of finding the back of the net and if we enter the final 30 minutes with Germany needing to win to stay in the tournament, and not having the lead, then it goes without saying that they’ll pile forward and go for it, either scoring themselves or opening up space for them to be counterattacked. 

Spain vs Germany game info

Spain vs Germany key injuries

Spain: None.
Germany: None.

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