New York @ Florida preview

Sun Life Stadium

Last Meeting ( May 13, 2010 ) NY Mets 1, Florida 2

New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel found his counterpart’s suggestion humorous. In the wake of the Phillies’ bullpen coach getting busted using binoculars in an apparent sign-stealing ploy, Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel said someone should check the Mets at Citi Field.

After all, the Mets are a National League-best 14-8 at home. If records are any indication, the Mets certainly aren’t stealing signs on the road.

Thursday’s 2-1 loss to the Marlins dropped them to 4-9 on the road. Every other team in the majors has won at least five away games. The Mets opened their four-game set at Sun Life Stadium with the lowest road batting average in the majors at .214 (93 for 475).

Josh Johnson and two relievers made sure it didn’t get any better in the series opener.

The Mets went 4 for 32 Thursday, dropping their road mark to .191. In 13 away games, the Mets are averaging 3.6 runs compared to 4.8 runs per game at home.

Among the regulars who have yet to get things going offensively on the road are Jose Reyes (.145), Jeff Francoeur (.209), Ike Davis (.200) and Jason Bay (.160). Just one of Bay’s eight road hits has gone for extra bases.

That dreadful road offense coupled with Oliver Perez on the mound tonight isn’t the best combination for the Mets, who are 1-5 in the left-hander’s six stars. In addition, the Mets have averaged just 1.7 runs during Perez’s 30 innings.

Though Perez has won four of five career decisions at Sun Life Stadium, he hasn’t pitched there since 2008. Perez made three South Florida starts that season and went 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA.

Regardless of how Perez performs, Manuel has said he’s not in immediate danger of losing his rotation spot. While Perez is holding opponents to a .239 average, command issues have kept him winless since last Aug. 23. In 30 innings this season, Perez has walked 25 and struck out 23.

Perez is the second of three lefties the Marlins will see in the series. Including Thursday’s game against Mets ace Johan Santana, the Marlins are 7-5 in games started by left-handers.

Catcher Ronny Paulino went hitless in three at-bats against Santana, but he’s still hitting .412 (14 for 34) off left-handers. The right-handed hitting Paulino has hit safely in 11 consecutive games started dating to April 17.

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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