Atlanta @ Miami preview

Last Meeting ( Apr 30, 2014 ) Atlanta 3, Miami 9

Few expect the Miami Marlins to challenge for a playoff spot, but they have sent a clear message to opposing teams that winning in Miami will not be easy. The Marlins go for a series sweep of National League East leader Atlanta on Thursday after two blowout victories over the Braves, improving Miami’s home record to 11-4. The Braves had not lost consecutive games since April 6-8 before arriving in South Florida, but have been overmatched by Miami's pitching while giving up runs in bunches in the first two games of the series.

The Marlins have scored 18 runs in the series and have averaged 6.3 runs per game at home, a stark contrast to Miami’s production on the road, where the Marlins are 2-10 and scoring 2.7 runs per contest. Marcell Ozuna, who belted a three-run homer Wednesday, is batting .404 at home with 14 RBIs. The Braves have battled offensive inconsistency all season despite their hot start, scoring just one run in 28 2/3 innings before mustering a sixth-inning run on a sacrifice fly by reliever David Hale.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Atlanta), FSN Florida (Miami)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Ervin Santana (3-0, 1.95 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (1-2, 2.73)

Santana allowed four runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings Friday against Cincinnati, by far the worst of his four starts with Atlanta. He struck out seven as his ERA rose from 0.86, but the 31-year-old has fanned 31 with just five walks in 27 2/3 innings. The Braves have averaged 6.3 runs in Santana’s four starts.

Alvarez gave up two runs on six hits in six innings Friday against the New York Mets, one start after firing a complete-game shutout against Seattle. After losing his first two starts and allowing 12 hits against Philadelphia in his third outing, Alvarez has surrendered two runs on eight hits in his past 15 innings. Alvarez has struggled against Atlanta in four career starts, going 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA.

WALK-OFFS

1. The Marlins have pounded out 28 hits in the first two games of the series.

2. Atlanta 1B Freddie Freeman is 5-for-9 with three doubles, a homer and five RBIs against Alvarez, but is 0-for-19 against Miami this season.

3. Braves starting pitchers have allowed 16 earned runs in the series after surrendering 15 in their previous 14 starts over 97 2/3 innings.

PREDICTION: Braves 5, Marlins 4