Washington @ Philadelphia preview

Citizens Bank Park

Last Meeting ( May 3, 2014 ) Washington 2, Philadelphia 7


The Philadelphia Phillies have jumped out to early three-run leads in each of their first two games in Washington, but probably shouldn’t expect similar success in the rubber match against the Nationals on Sunday. Washington fell behind early Friday on Marlon Byrd’s three-run homer in the first inning before rallying for its ninth come-from-behind victory. Ryan Howard recorded his own three-run blast Saturday, which proved to be enough offense to back the Phillies’ A.J. Burnett in a 7-2 victory.

The Phillies face long odds of repeating their modest first-inning success against Washington starter Gio Gonzalez, who is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three home starts and has yet to give up a home run in those outings. He will be charged with maintaining the Nationals’ recent dominance in this series after they suffered only their third loss to the Phillies in their last 11 meetings. Making Gonzalez’s task more difficult is the uncertain status of Adam LaRoche, who was pulled from Saturday’s game in the sixth inning as the Nationals’ cleanup hitter deals with a quad injury.

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, MASN (Washington), CSN Philadelphia

PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 3.25 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Roberto Hernandez (1-1, 5.74)

Gonzalez received a no-decision Tuesday after working six innings, but struck out a season-high nine as Washington improved to 5-1 in his starts following the Nationals’ 4-3 win over the Houston Astros. The two-time All-Star, who has not surrendered a homer in five of his six turns, allowed three runs on five hits and two walks while throwing a season-high 111 pitches. Gonzalez went 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four outings versus the Phillies in 2013 and is 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA in eight career starts against them.

With Cole Hamels scratched due to the flu, Hernandez will make his first start since April 25, when he took the loss after giving up four runs over six frames in a 5-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 33-year-old Dominican coincidentally came on in relief of an ineffective Hamels four days later, retiring the only batter he faced in a loss to the New York Mets. Hernandez hasn’t faced the Nationals since firing a three-hitter in 2010, which moved him to 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA in two career starts against Washington.

WALK-OFFS

1. Howard is 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in his career against Gonzalez.

2. LaRoche, who leads Washington with five homers and ranks second on the team with 19 RBIs, has driven in at least one run in eight of his last nine contests.

3. Phillies 3B Cody Asche is 14-for-35 with two home runs in 10 career games against the Nationals.

PREDICTION: Nationals 5, Phillies 3

Pages Related to This Topic

About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

Weather Forecast