Milwaukee @ Cincinnati preview

Last Meeting ( Mar 27, 2014 ) Cincinnati 8, Milwaukee 2

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to surprise by recording the best record in baseball (20-8) through April while building a 5½-game lead in the National League Central. The Brewers can extend their advantage against a divisional foe when they visit the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday to start a four-game series. Milwaukee has gotten strong pitching all season and comes in after taking two of three at St. Louis - its closer pursuer in the NL Central - and is 9-3 in its last 12 games.

The bad news for the Brewers is that slugger Ryan Braun (oblique strain) is out indefinitely, shortstop Jean Segura (head cut) did not start in the St. Louis series and third baseman Aramis Ramirez (elbow) missed the last two games. The Reds had turned things around with a 7-2 stretch to get back the .500 mark, but have dropped four of their last five contests. Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, the 2010 NL MVP, has managed only one RBI his last 12 games.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee), FSN Ohio (Cincinnati)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Marco Estrada (2-1, 2.87 ERA) vs. Reds RH Homer Bailey (1-2, 6.15)

Estrada has allowed three runs or fewer in all five starts, including three over 7 2/3 innings in Saturday’s victory against the Chicago Cubs. The 30-year-old Californian, who has struck out 28 and walked six in 31 1/3 innings, is 2-3 with a 3.51 ERA lifetime against the Reds in nine appearances (five starts). Estrada has given up eight homers to current Reds batters in 98 at-bats – four to Jay Bruce.

Bailey has yet to find his 2013 form, giving up four or more runs in four of his five outings after Atlanta scored five in six innings off him last Friday. The 27-year-old Texan has surrendered seven home runs and struck out 29 in 26 1/3 innings. Bailey is 3-7 in 16 starts with a 5.36 ERA versus Milwaukee while Rickie Weeks is 13-for-26 with two homers and eight RBIs against the right-hander.

WALK-OFFS

1. Cincinnati leads the majors with 28 stolen bases - 11 by CF Billy Hamilton.

2. Milwaukee 2B Scooter Gennett, a Cincinnati native, has nine multi-hit games and is batting .302 overall.

3. Reds RF Jay Bruce needs one home run to reach 100 at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park and one RBI for 500 in his career.

PREDICTION: Reds 3, Brewers 2