Boston @ Baltimore preview

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Last Meeting ( Apr 21, 2014 ) Baltimore 7, Boston 6


The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a rough series against Oakland that included benches-clearing incidents in two games incited by budding superstar Manny Machado. The Orioles hope to have Machado available when they open a three-game series against the visiting Boston Red Sox on Monday. Machado threw his helmet at Athletics third baseman Josh Donaldson on Friday and heaved his bat down the third baseline in Sunday’s loss.

The 21-year-old Machado let his backswing get away from him and knocked Oakland catcher Derek Norris out of the game on Sunday before getting a pitch far inside in the eighth inning and swinging late, letting go of the bat and sailing it all the way to the third-base umpire as the benches cleared. That sort of frustration is familiar to the Red Sox, who had dropped five in a row before pulling out a late win at Detroit on Sunday. David Ortiz had been one of many struggling hitters in the middle of the lineup but turned things around with a go-ahead three-run homer to earn a 5-3 victory over the Tigers on Sunday.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), MASN (Baltimore)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (1-3, 4.72 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Bud Norris (4-5, 4.41)

Peavy was knocked around for five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings at Cleveland on Tuesday, marking the fourth time in five starts that he has allowed at least five earned runs. The Alabama native issued a total of five walks in his last five starts but surrendered 44 hits in 30 2/3 innings. Peavy faced Baltimore at home on April 20 and did not fare well, yielding five runs on 10 hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings without factoring in the decision.

Norris was hit in the right arm with a comebacker on Wednesday against Texas and ended up leaving the game but will make his scheduled start on Monday. The 29-year-old got the win in that game while surrendering five runs in five innings and is 2-1 despite a 6.88 ERA in his last three turns. Norris suffered a loss in Boston on April 19, allowing four runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings while striking out seven.

WALK-OFFS

1. Red Sox INF/OF Brock Holt made his first career start in left field on Sunday and made some nice defensive plays while recording four hits.

2. Baltimore LF and major-league home run leader Nelson Cruz has gone five straight games without a homer.

3. Boston closer Koji Uehara has not allowed a run in any of his last 15 appearances.

PREDICTION: Red Sox 6, Orioles 5

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Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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