Cincinnati @ Chicago preview

Wrigley Field

Last Meeting ( Jun 23, 2014 ) Cincinnati 6, Chi. Cubs 1


Even if Devin Mesoraco's quest for his first All-Star berth ultimately falls short, there’s no questioning his value to the surging Cincinnati Reds. The 26-year-old catcher has homered in four straight games heading into Tuesday’s contest against the host Chicago Cubs, who have scored a total of five runs during their three-game losing streak. Mesoraco is batting .315 with 13 homers and 38 RBIs for the Reds, who moved over .500 for the first time this season at 38-37 with Monday's 6-1 win.

Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo belted his 16th homer on Monday, but he’s lagging behind five other first basemen in the All-Star voting. Rizzo is hitting .312 with six doubles, six homers and 15 RBIs this month, and his 48 walks rank second in the National League behind Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, who has 52. Shortstop Starlin Castro is hitting .286 with 11 homers and should also receive All-Star consideration, but he faces tough competition from Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez.

TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, FSN Ohio (Cincinnati), CSN Chicago

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Homer Bailey (7-3, 4.68 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (3-1, 1.98)

Bailey labored through 5 2/3 innings while throwing 92 pitches and allowing three runs on nine hits last Thursday against Pittsburgh. The 28-year-old, who agreed to a six-year contract through the 2019 season in February, has recorded eight quality starts in his last 12 outings. Nate Schierholtz is 7-for-18 with a home run against Bailey, who is 8-2 with a 4.16 ERA in 14 career starts against the Cubs, including six shutout innings on April 20.

Arrieta continued to impress last Wednesday with a career-high 11 strikeouts while holding Miami to one run over seven innings. The 28-year-old, who is making his first career appearance against Cincinnati, has gone 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in four starts this month while posting a 29-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. “He’s just pitching and attacking hitters,” manager Rick Renteria told MLB.com. “He’s got great stuff and it has a lot of movement.”

WALK-OFFS

1. Reds 2B Brandon Phillips missed Monday’s game with a bruised right heel and is listed as day-to-day.

2. Chicago OF Justin Ruggiano is hitless in his last 15 at-bats.

3. Cincinnati is 30-11 against the Cubs over the last three seasons.

PREDICTION: Cubs 5, Reds 2

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Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

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