Philadelphia @ Milwaukee preview
Miller Park
Last Meeting ( Apr 10, 2014 ) Milwaukee 6, Philadelphia 2
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off another losing series against their National League Central nemesis, making it an opportune time for the Philadelphia Phillies to come to town. The Brewers, who open a seven-game homestand on Monday with the first of four versus the Phillies, wrapped up a 1-4 road trip on Sunday with their seventh loss in 10 games against the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee, which has dropped five of six overall, scored only five runs during the three-game set.
Offense was not an issue for the Brewers in Philadelphia from April 8-10 as they belted five homers – including three by Ryan Braun – and outscored the Phillies 25-10 during their three-game sweep. Milwaukee has won six in a row and seven of its last eight meetings with Philadelphia (37-51), which fell a season-low 14 games under .500 on Sunday after it was swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phillies have dropped 13 of their last 16 contests since a season-high five-game winning streak to sink into last place in the NL East.
TV: 8:10 p.m. ET, CSN Philadelphia, FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies LH Cole Hamels (2-5, 2.98 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Marco Estrada (7-5, 4.94)
After posting a 1.88 ERA in his 10 previous turns – pitching at least seven innings in each one – Hamels struggled in Wednesday’s 5-0 loss in Miami as he gave up three runs on five hits and four walks in five innings against the Marlins. The 2008 World Series MVP has recorded 35 quality starts (in 47 tries) since the beginning of the 2013 season, but is only 10-9 in those outings because he has received a lackluster 3.25 runs of support per nine innings. Hamels is 6-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 all-time starts against the Brewers.
Estrada, who has allowed at least two homers in eight of his 17 starts, gave up two more solo shots last Tuesday to run his total to a major league-high 26 for the season in a 4-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. The 31-year-old pitched well otherwise, giving up only four additional hits over six frames while throwing a season-low 92 pitches. Estrada secured his first decision versus the Phillies in an April 10 road victory after yielding two runs over six innings, but has a 6.33 ERA in nine career appearances (three starts) overall against them.
WALK-OFFS
1. Braun, who missed Sunday’s loss to the Reds with back spasms and is being ruled day-to-day, is 9-for-28 with three home runs and five RBIs in his career against Hamels.
2. The 26 home runs allowed by Estrada are already a career high and seven more than any other pitcher in the majors.
3. Philadelphia needs a win in this series to avoid matching its worst road trip since 1972, when the Phillies went 1-9 against the Montreal Expos, Pirates and New York Mets.
PREDICTION: Brewers 4, Phillies 2