Milwaukee @ Chicago preview
Wrigley Field
Last Meeting ( Sep 16, 2016 ) Milwaukee 4, Chi. Cubs 5
Jake Arrieta hasn’t quite duplicated the numbers from his Cy Young Award campaign of a year ago, but the Chicago Cubs pitcher can take over the National League lead for wins with a victory over the visiting Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday. Arrieta aims to break a tie with teammate Jon Lester for the league lead in the third of a four-game series.
Miguel Montero’s 10th-inning home run powered the Cubs to a 5-4 victory Friday – their seventh walk-off win of the year and their seventh win this season when trailing after eight innings. Both teams lost outfielders to injuries Friday, as Chicago’s Jorge Soler left after three innings with tightness in his right side and Milwaukee rookie Keon Broxton suffered a broken right wrist running into the outfield wall while tracking down a fly ball. Brewers starters have posted a 2.82 ERA over the past 25 games – the best mark in the majors over that span – and right-hander Zach Davies hopes to continue that trend. Chicago has won 26 of its last 33 games at Wrigley Field, where it owns a major league-best 52-21 home mark.
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FSN Wisconsin (Milwaukee), WGN (Chicago)
PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Zach Davies (10-7, 3.87 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (17-6, 2.91)
Davies has put together a run of four straight quality starts, but he is winless in his last three outings. The 23-year-old settled for a no-decision Sunday at St. Louis despite holding the Cardinals to one run and five hits over 7 1/3 innings. Davies took a tough-luck loss against the Cubs on Sept. 5 in Milwaukee, giving up three runs (two earned) over 6 2/3 frames and dropping to 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA in four career starts against Chicago.
Arrieta hasn’t had his best stuff in his last three outings, but he was able to grind out a win Sunday at Houston, giving up three runs and four hits over 5 1/3 innings. The 30-year-old has just two quality starts over his last six outings, including a rocky start against Milwaukee on Aug. 18 in which he earned the win despite allowing five runs in 5 2/3 frames. Arrieta is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 11 career starts against the Brewers, including a 2-0 mark and 5.06 ERA in two meetings this season.
WALK-OFFS
1. Montero has a team-best .556 on-base percentage against the Brewers this season.
2. Brewers OF Ryan Braun’s home run Friday was his 27th against the Cubs – tied for his third-most against any opponent.
3. The Cubs are 7-1 against the Brewers at home this season, tying the franchise mark for home wins against Milwaukee in a season.
PREDICTION: Cubs 4, Brewers 2