Cincinnati @ Baltimore preview

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Last Meeting ( Sep 2, 2014 ) Cincinnati 4, Baltimore 5


The Baltimore Orioles are running away with the American League East as they close in on their first division title in 17 years, but they suddenly have a reason not to put it on cruise control. Holding a 9 1/2-game lead, the Orioles' magic number for wrapping up the AL East is 17, but they are also only three games back of the Los Angeles Angels for the best record in baseball. Baltimore goes for its sixth win in seven games when it hosts the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday.

Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy is expected back in the starting lineup after sitting out Baltimore's series-opening win due to back spasms. Cincinnati made a belated comeback courtesy of Jay Bruce's grand slam, but it wasn't enough to halt a tailspin that has seen the Reds plummet seven games behind Milwaukee for the second wild card in the National League. Cincinnati, which has lost 16 of 23, sends Dylan Axelrod to the mound to face Miguel Gonzalez in the second of a three-game set.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, FSN Ohio (Cincinnati), MASN2 (Baltimore)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Dylan Axelrod (1-0, 1.64 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (7-7, 3.61)

Axelrod, who was acquired from the Chicago White Sox in mid-July, will make his start for the Reds in place of an injured Homer Bailey. Axelrod took a no-decision at Colorado on Aug. 17, giving up two runs on seven hits over six innings, before blanking the Chicago Cubs on two hits over five scoreless innings Thursday. Axelrod tossed 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball to beat the Orioles in Baltimore on Aug. 29, 2012.

Gonzalez has strung together three straight strong starts, the latter two coming after spending a couple of weeks in the minors. He registered his seventh quality start in eight outings after limiting Minnesota to one run and four hits over seven innings Friday. The inability to keep the ball in the park has been a detriment to Gonzalez, who has surrendered 14 of his 22 homers in his last 11 starts.

WALK-OFFS

1. Orioles RHP Darren O'Day had allowed one run in 27 appearances before giving up four in two-thirds of an inning Tuesday.

2. Reds CF Billy Hamilton set a franchise rookie record with his 55th stolen base Tuesday.

3. The Orioles are 16-1 when C Caleb Joseph has an RBI.

PREDICTION: Orioles 5, Reds 3

Pages Related to This Topic

About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

Weather Forecast