Baltimore @ Boston preview

Fenway Park

Last Meeting ( Jul 6, 2014 ) Baltimore 7, Boston 6


Through devastating injuries to Matt Wieters and Manny Machado, and the struggles of slugger Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz continues to step up for the Baltimore Orioles. Cruz looks for an encore to Sunday’s seven-RBI, two-homer onslaught when the Orioles visit the Boston Red Sox on Monday for the first of three contests. Cruz boasts career highs with a 101 RBIs and a majors-best 39 homers as Baltimore leads the American League East by 9 ½ games over the New York Yankees.

Cruz recorded four homers and 12 RBIs while Adam Jones is batting .385 in the season series against Boston as the Orioles own seven wins in 13 games. Baltimore shortstop J.J. Hardy was held out the last two contests against Tampa Bay with a sore back and is day-to-day. The Red Sox won two of three from Toronto over the weekend as rookie Mookie Betts remained hot, pushing his totals to 13 hits in 34 at-bats over his last eight games.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET; MASN (Baltimore), NESN (Boston)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (8-7, 3.38 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Joe Kelly (3-3, 4.13)

Gonzalez posted his first career shutout on Wednesday, limiting Cincinnati to four hits and striking out a season-high eight batters. The 30-year-old Mexican has been outstanding since the beginning of July while allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts. Daniel Nava is 4-for-10 against Gonzalez, who is 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in six career games (four starts) versus Boston.

Kelly earned his first victory since being acquired from St. Louis last time out, yielding three runs over 6 2/3 innings to beat the Yankees. The 26-year-old has given up three runs or fewer in five of his six starts with the Red Sox, but walked 22 over 34 2/3 innings. Kelly, who will face Baltimore for the first time, has limited opponents to a .228 batting average in home games.

WALK-OFFS

1. Boston DH David Ortiz needs two RBIs for a team-record eighth 30-homer, 100-RBI season, which would surpass the previous mark of seven set by Ted Williams.

2. Baltimore RF Nick Markakis needs one more multi-hit game to reach 50 for the sixth time in his career and join Eddie Murray as the only two Orioles to accomplish the feat.

3. Red Sox 1B-DH Mike Napoli and INF-OF Brock Holt both missed Sunday’s 3-1 loss to Toronto with an illness. Their status for Monday is uncertain.

PREDICTION: Orioles 5, Red Sox 3

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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