Boston @ Baltimore preview

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Last Meeting ( Sep 19, 2014 ) Boston 5, Baltimore 3


Boston Red Sox fans have not had a lot to cheer about this season, but David Ortiz is giving them a reason to smile. The veteran slugger looks to continue a strong finish when the Red Sox visit the Baltimore Orioles for the second contest of a three-game series on Saturday. Ortiz hit a pair of home runs in Friday’s opener, including a two-run blast in the 10th inning that proved to be the decisive hit in the 5-3 victory.

The Orioles clinched the American League East earlier in the week, ending Boston’s reign as defending champion, and are balancing the desire for home-field advantage throughout the postseason with the need to get veterans rest over the last week. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy have each had a day off, and the rest of the regulars can expect a day or two with the team 2 1/2 games behind the AL-leading Los Angeles Angels. Ortiz’s home runs gave him 34 on the season to go along with 102 RBIs, making him the first Boston player ever with eight seasons of at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), MASN (Baltimore)

PITCHING MATCHUP:
Red Sox RH Rubby De La Rosa (4-7, 4.31 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (12-5, 3.29)

De La Rosa is coming to the end of a long season and is crawling to the finish line with an 0-3 record in his last six starts. The Dominican completed six innings in only one of those outings and was shelled for five runs on six hits in four frames at Kansas City last Saturday. De La Rosa lost at Baltimore on June 11, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out seven in 5 2/3 innings.

The Orioles are ramping up Tillman for the postseason, and he has allowed more than two earned runs in a start once in his last nine outings. The 26-year-old held the Yankees to one run in 6 2/3 innings on Sunday after limiting the Red Sox to one run in five frames in his previous start. Tillman is 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 15 career starts against Boston.

WALK-OFFS


1. Red Sox OF Rusney Castillo will head to the Arizona Fall League when the season ends and is expected to total 200 at-bats before shutting down for the offseason.

2. Baltimore LF Nelson Cruz is 12-for-28 over the last seven games.

3. Boston 1B Mike Napoli (finger, toe) will get regular rest the remainder of the season.

PREDICTION: Orioles 6, Red Sox 3

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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