The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers get a series going tonight in the Lonestar State.
The Astros avoided a weekend sweep with a 7-3 win yesterday. Meanwhile, their opponents have ridden some nice momentum with four straight wins, including a series sweep over the Baltimore Orioles. They should keep it going tonight.
My Tigers vs. Astros predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Monday, April 28th.
Tigers vs Astros prediction
My Tigers vs Astros best bet: Tigers first-five moneyline (-105 at Caesars)
Tonight is a fascinating matchup between two excellent pitchers at two probably the high points of their careers.
The numbers for Houston Astros pitcher Ronel Blanco aren't particularly good this season, at least from an ERA perspective, but there is plenty to like going forward. The underlying metrics are strong, and the expected ERA of around 3.00 indicates that a significant positive regression is coming soon.
On the other side is Jack Flaherty, who built upon a solid campaign last year with a 2.63 ERA to start the year but, more impressively, a strikeout rate nearing the Top 10% of baseball.
I'm rolling with him with my best bet and taking the Detroit Tigers early at an attractive price of -105. My projections made the fair number -128.
I trust Flaherty's stuff more, at least based on the matchup, to get the edge over Blanco. As noted, Flaherty is a strikeout pitcher who lives (or dies) by creating large amounts of whiffs. The Astros are a good candidate for this. One of the fallouts of trading Kyle Tucker is their aggressive plate habits, which are being punished more.
Right now, Houston has the sixth-highest swing rate in the sport. Those numbers mean nothing without the "other ones" around them, but if you pair below-average chase contact rate, you fall into a dangerous area against elite strikeout pitchers. That holds true with Flaherty, who has faced two other teams in the Top 10 in chase rate and held them to just two earned runs across nearly 11 innings. The Astros find themselves ranking sixth there.
Much of this handicap is my belief that Flaherty can put up a stronger five innings than Blanco because of how good of a matchup it is for him. Thus, I don't have a ton of negatives to say about the Astros hurler. However, there is one notable element.
An underrated part of his unlucky but poor start has been a 12% walk rate. It improved last season after a few rough years in that department, and you wondered if he had fixed what was a glaring issue — it's now back again.
Nobody has walked more over the last three games than the Tigers, with nearly seven per contest. They've backed that up with multiple metrics that scream quality plate appearances. I believe they'll get some free passes today, which will be the difference in a matchup with thin margins.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Tigers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Tigers F5 moneyline
F5 Under 4
Gleyber Torres 1+ runs
I'm not expecting many runs with two strong pitchers on the mound. I projected only 3.2 runs in the first five innings, so I'm happy to get the Under 4.
We've finished things up with a non-correlated play in Gleyber Torres to score a run. As long as he can get on base, the four options behind him have the best head-to-head matchup against Blanco, which puts him in a great spot to cross home plate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tigers vs Astros odds
Tigers vs Astros live odds
Tigers vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit -115 | Houston -105
- Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+143) | Houston -1.5 (-169)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Tigers vs Astros trend
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros.
How to watch Tigers vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, 4-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Detroit, SCHN2 |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (1-2, 2.63 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ronel Blanco (2-2, 5.01 ERA) |
Tigers vs Astros latest injuries
Tigers vs Astros weather
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