It’s a bit of a light day of action on the diamond with just eight games on the MLB odds board. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the MLB player props market.
Today I ride a couple of hot hitters, and of course, give a little fade of everyone’s favorite betting punching bag in Patrick Corbin.
Here are my MLB picks for Monday, April 28.
Best MLB player props today
Nootbaar o1.5 TB (+116)
Butler o1.5 TB (+126)
Hernandez o0.5 RBI (+152)
MLB props for April 28
Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 total bases (+116 at Caesars)
A month into the season, it's clear the St. Louis Cardinals will have to outhit people to win games.
Well, they’ve got a few things in their favor tonight when they visit the Cincinnati Reds tonight. One is that Lars Nootbaar continues to rake this season. And two, the Reds hand the ball to Nick Martinez in a game being played at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
The Cards outfielder is hitting .272 with an .837 OPS while hitting four home runs and 17 RBI. Noot is also locked in right now, with multiple hits in four of his last five games, good for a .421 average with a 1.192 OPS.
And poor old Martinez. It appears the Reds are just using him as an innings-eater at this point. The veteran right-hander enters this game pitching to a 4.42 expected ERA and a .281 expected batting average.
Not surprisingly, left-handed batters are doing most of the damage, getting to Martinez for a .275 batting average and an .851 OPS.
Nootbaar has topped 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games, and this doesn’t look like the matchup that’s going to slow him down. At plus money, my MLB picks love him to go Over once again.
Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 total bases (+126 at Caesars)
It’s always fun to pick on Patrick Corbin. So, let’s do exactly that when he takes the ball against the A's.
The Texas Rangers starter has a shockingly respectable 3.77 ERA heading into tonight’s game. Unfortunately for Corbin, a regression to his mean (which is bad) is not far off.
Corbin has an expected ERA of 4.91 and ranks in the 11th percentile when it comes to opponent expected batting average, which .297.
His last start, which also came against the A's, is a perfect example. Corbin allowed just two runs over five innings, but had a WHIP of 1.80, allowing seven hits and two walks.
One of the guys responsible for that damage was Lawrence Butler. The up-and-coming outfielder is having a solid sophomore season, hitting .257 with a .768 OPS. And over the last 12 games, he’s upped those numbers to .269 and .809 while also hitting all three of his home runs — one of which came against Corbin.
Corbin has also had some funky reverse splits for a while now and 2025 is no different, allowing lefties to get to him for a .333 batting average and a 1.133 OPS.
I like Lawrence to continue his solid approach at the plate, get into another Corbin meatball, and go Over 1.5 total bases. Something he has done six times in his last 12 games.
Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 RBI (+152 at Caesars)
Teoscar Hernandez has always been a streaky hitter. Luckily, for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he’s on a heater heading into tonight’s matchup with the Miami Marlins.
Hernandez owns a solid .277 batting average and an .869 OPS with eight home runs and 25 RBI this season. But the ball must look the size of a grapefruit for the Dodgers’ slugger right now.
Hernandez is hitting .381 with a 1.268 OPS in five games over the last two series. He has whacked three dingers and two doubles while driving in eight during that stretch, and I like Hernandez to stay hot when he faces off against Marlins starter Edward Cabrera.
The 27-year-old right-hander has good stuff, and he’s probably been a little better than his 6.14 ERA, but he struggles with his command. That has resulted in high walk and barrel rates.
Cabrera also ranks in the 28th percentile in ground ball rate, and being a flyball pitcher against a locked-in Hernandez is dangerous.
Hernandez has driven in at least one run in four of his last five games and I love the odds we are getting for him to get another RBI tonight.
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