It’s a new week in the MLB and that means some new series to bet on some pitcher props and hopefully pad the pockets with the warm weather just around the corner.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Monday, April 28.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 28
Flaherty u1.5 walks (+126)
Cabrera o2.5 earned runs (+100)- Cabrera u14.5 outs (+159)
Today's SP best bets
Tigers vs. Astros
The angle: Jack Flaherty is being priced over his small 2025 sample for his walk props.
The move: Jack Flaherty Under 1.5 walks allowed (+126 at Caesars)
Jack Flaherty is 4-1 O/U on this prop this year but that might be why bettors are getting this price. He is coming off an elite nine-K, zero-walk start vs. the Padres and faces a Houston Astros lineup that is an average BB% team at best.
The larger sample on Flaherty shows a pitcher with much better control. He walked 28 batters over 166 innings last year, which is good for just 0.23 walks per inning.
The Detroit Tigers right-hander has not gone more than 18 outs at all this year and should be penciled in for six innings max. It was a similar price last start and projects for around a coin toss at this plus-money price.
Marlins vs. Dodgers
The angle: Cabrera is in poor form and has to deal with good hitting conditions and the Dodgers
The move: Edward Cabrera Over 2.5 earned runs (+100 at Caesars)
Edward Cabrera has struggled through three starts, giving up 10 earned runs over 14+ innings. He isn’t keeping the ball in the yard with three homers allowed and he is handing out free passes with eight walks. Now, he has to take his poor form to Chavez Ravine, where the wind is blowing out to right-center field, and navigate this Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.
Cabrera’s career is heading the wrong way after a 3.01 ERA in 2022. Every following season since his ERA has increased. Since 2023, his road ERA is 1.5 runs higher and his BABIP this year is at a three-season low. Regression isn’t saving the Miami starter and he could see more batters in the series opener as digging into the bullpen in the first game of a series is always a tough move.
Marlins vs. Dodgers
The angle: The Dodgers own Cabrera
The move: Edward Cabrera Under 14.5 outs (+159 at Caesars)
Caesars has grown their pitcher prop offerings and that includes outs recorded. They have this Under at +159 while it’s as short as +135 at BetMGM and +145 at bet365.
THE BAT is projecting 13.7 total outs, making this the best +EV pitcher out prop of the day at Caesars.
The Miami Marlins right-hander has not thrown more than 88 pitches this year and is 2-1 O/U on this total across three starts. He is in trouble vs. the Dodgers if last year is an indication.
In his two starts vs. LA last year, he lasted two innings after giving up four runs in one start and 2 1/3 innings after giving up seven runs in the other. The Dodgers own Cabrera and he should be very scared tonight.
Not intended for use in MA.
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