Baltimore @ Boston preview

Fenway Park

Last Meeting ( Sep 17, 2013 ) Baltimore 3, Boston 2


The Boston Red Sox will wait to clinch the American League East but could still lock up a playoff berth on Wednesday. Attempting to keep the Red Sox from reaching that goal while making up some ground in the wild-card race is the visiting Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles took the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday, pulling themselves within two games of the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays for one of the two AL wild-card slots.

Tuesday’s setback was just the fifth in 22 games for the Red Sox, who own a nine-game lead over the Rays in the East and have a magic number of three to clinch the division. The magic number to clinch a playoff spot is two, and Boston needs a win and a Cleveland Indians’ loss Wednesday to lock up at least a wild-card berth. Baltimore is trying to stay close enough to make a move over the weekend, when they visit Tampa Bay for a four-game series.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MASN (Baltimore), NESN (Boston)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (7-7, 3.99 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (11-5, 4.03)

Chen suffered through his fourth straight winless outing Thursday, when he was knocked around for five runs on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings by the Yankees. The Taiwan native owns an 8.10 ERA and 10 walks in 20 total innings over his last four turns. Chen’s rough patch began at Boston on Aug. 27, when he was lit up for eight runs on as many hits in 3 2/3 innings.

Peavy battled his command at Tampa Bay last week and ended up issuing five walks while allowing three runs in six innings. The former NL Cy Young winner does not own a loss in any of his last five starts and is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA since joining the Red Sox before the trade deadline. Peavy is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore.

WALK-OFFS

1. Red Sox closer Koji Uehara had his franchise records of 37 straight batters retired and 27 consecutive scoreless appearances come to an end Tuesday.

2. Baltimore DH Danny Valencia is batting .473 in his last 16 games.

3. Boston CF Jacoby Ellsbury (broken foot) is working out but is not yet performing baseball activities.

PREDICTION: Red Sox 8, Orioles 6

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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