MLB Picks

I want any piece of the middle of the Baltimore order at 3.8x or better against Tomoyuki Sugano, and that brings me to Gunnar Henderson. Sugano has the 15th-worst HR/9 in baseball this season, and his xERA is 1.72 points higher than his actual 5.23 ERA. He gets just 32% groundballs and has allowed five or more runs in three straight starts. He has been a home run target all season long. Henderson might not be the hottest Baltimore bat, but at this price, I'll take a 22-HR hitter who ranks third in slugging over the last two weeks and is nearly double the price of Pete Alonso. Coors Field is the second-best HR park today, per Ball Park Pal. Winds are blowing out to left field, and 90-degree temperatures should help the ball fly. If Sugano doesn't get it done, the Rockies bullpen can, with its No. 26 xFIP and No. 28 xERA on the season.

The Under 9.5 has value with Painter in strong form and Arizona’s lineup out of sync. Philadelphia’s bullpen has also been excellent lately, posting a 2.98 FIP while limiting home run damage. Even with Arizona’s bullpen-game risk, this total feels high.

This is the best bat over the last two weeks vs. a pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen, owns a 7.18 ERA since the break, and is starting because of injuries. Mickey Gasper is slugging 1.077 over his last 11 games with five dingers over those last 14 days. His damage is coming vs. right-handed pitching, with 100% of his dingers coming vs. them. Since being called up, he is slashing .394/.565/1.121, which is ridiculous. Today's matchup should be circled for Mickey and all bettors. Bryce Miller was demoted to the pen but didn't throw a pitch there because of other injuries. He threw a season-high 104 pitches in his last outing on August 23 and has given up a home run in all but one of his last 12 starts, with multi-HR games in 33% of those. Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball per ERA in the second half of the season. I'd play this matchup to 5x.

Dylan Cease has coughed up more than four hits just once in over a month and is in a prime position to limit the Cleveland Guardians' bats tonight. Across 114 plate appearances, the Guardians own just a .388 xSLG - hard contact from this lineup comes few and far between when the Cy Young odds candidate is on the bump, which puts us in a good spot to fly Under the number. 

Drew Gilbert has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Drew Gilbert will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jared Jones in today's matchup.

Junior Caminero hits lefties and righties well but he has produced more power vs. the latter, with an ISO of more than .260.

Justin Hagenman relied primarily on cutters, sliders, and sinkers when pitching in the majors last season. Caminero has a strong track record facing those pitches, recording an ISO of .225 or higher against each of them.

You can never go wrong with fading Dean Kremer for homers. He is one of a handful of starters this year to allow four home runs in a game, and his HR/9 is the worst of any starter on today's slate and better than only 13 other starters in all of baseball. He gives up a ton of fly balls with just a 37% groundball rate, and when that ball does go in the air, it leaves the yard more often than not, with baseball's eighth-worst HR/FB rate. That makes this a price-shopping situation with the Tigers, and getting Kevin McGonigle at more than 5x is a no-brainer. He's 2-for-2 against Kremer in a small sample, but the bigger value is that he ranks the third-most probable Tiger to go deep while carrying a much longer price than the two bats ahead of him.

Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski paces qualified starters in xERA, xFIP, and strikeout percentage while holding opposing hitters to the lowest barrel percentage, and he's also held the Cubs to a minuscule .202 wOBA and .422 OPS in two starts this season. Chicago lefty David Peteron has also allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts, so I'm not expecting runs in bunches again tonight at Wrigley Field.

When it comes to his home run skill, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #6 venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of the day at 95°.

Houston has trended to the Under at home of late and ranks 29th in xwOBA over the past 30 days, so Chicago starter Davis Martin is set up for success after firing five scoreless innings during his rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Aug. 27. Additionally, Astros starter Hayden Wesneski has found a groove with just a single run allowed on four hits for a 2.64 xERA across his past two starts.

Ben Rice hits for real power against pitchers of both handedness, making him a real threat no matter who is in the game.

Reid Detmers attacks righties with a steady diet of fastballs and sliders. That sets up well for Rice, who has generated a .388 ISO and 17.8% barrel rate against those two pitches – both of which are elite outputs.

 

 

The Cardinals have yet to announce their starter, but while I think the Dodgers will do enough to cover, their offense has struggled recently. The Under has covered in four of their last five games, and shouldn't have an issue with Yamamoto on the mound tonight.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 stadium in the game for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 6th-shallowest right field fences in the majors.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 86%.