The field has been set for the 2024 Home Run Derby, which helps kick off All-Star festivities on Monday, July 15.
Pete Alonso will look to win his third dinger competition, which would tie the all-time record. At the same time, Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia attempts to play hometown hero with the event at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
Let's look at the MLB odds for the 2024 Home Run Derby to help with your MLB picks.
Odds to win the 2024 Home Run Derby
| Player | 2024 HRs | Odds to win |
|---|---|---|
 Pete Alonso |
19 | +330 |
 Marcell Ozuna |
26 | +425 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
16 | +425 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
28 | +475 |
 Adolis Garcia |
17 | +550 |
 Teoscar Hernandez |
19 | +950 |
 Jose Ramirez |
23 | +1,300 |
 Alec Bohm |
11 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on 7-15.
2024 MLB Home Run Derby field and favorites
7/15/2024: The Home Run Derby is tonight and Pete Alonso is still drawing the shortest odds, though they are a little longer than they were. Value has dried up a bit, too, across the board. Teoscar Hernandez was trading at 12/1 before the weekend but has taken enough action to drop him below 10/1 to win it all. All but two participants (Jose Ramirez and Alec Bohm) are listed with odds shorter than +1,000 and the Top 5 are all between +330 and +550.
Previous Home Run Derby odds analysis
7/11/2024: Gunnar Henderson leads all entrants in regular-season home runs with 27 but he's fourth on the odds board. New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is unsurprisingly drawing the shortest odds as he's won this event twice in four appearances. However, Alonso has come up short in his last two entries, including being absolutely obliterated by Julio Rodriguez 41-21 in the opening round a year ago. The Polar Bear might have something to prove or the competition has possibly caught up to him. Adolis Garcia being second on the board is silly. He is a fellow returnee but he managed only 17 home runs in his first-round elimination at the hands of eventual winner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last year. He was one of two, the other being Mookie Betts, to fail to reach 20 homers in the first round. Garcia is getting the bump here because it's being played in the Texas Rangers' home park but I can't see that actually helping matters. Bobby Witt Jr. having shorter odds than either Teoscar Hernandez or Jose Ramirez is a bit of a head-scratcher as he hasn't exactly demonstrated consistent in-game power. He and Alec Bohm have the fewest of any of the participants, but the Philadelphia Phillies third baseman is drawing much longer odds. Still, it's not a kiss of death, either. Adley Rutschman, who had the fewest long balls of all the 2023 participants, didn't advance beyond the first round a year ago but he did hit 27, losing by one to Luis Robert. Under this year's rules (more on that in a moment), Rutschman would have reached Round 2. Hernandez is the most intriguing, though, relative to his odds. Yes, Ramirez has more dingers and they're priced identically, but Teo has the 17th-best barrels per plate appearance in MLB. He trails some of the other competitors, but 12/1 is an attractive number for a guy who is just outside the elite in terms of barrel rate. It is worth noting that of all the contenders, Witt has the highest maximum exit velocity, while Henderson has the highest average EV and hard-hit percentage, and Ramirez has the loftiest launch angle. We haven't mentioned Marcell Ozuna. He kind of checks off all the power boxes while not leading the way in any of them. It will be interesting to see if his in-game power translates to BP-style mashing.
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2024 MLB Home Run Derby rule changes
There are a few added wrinkles to this year's format. In recent years, the event has been a knockout tournament with seeding based on how many home runs were hit in the regular season leading up to the All-Star break. Under that style, Gunnar Henderson would have had the top seed with the most long balls while Alec Bohm and his 11 dingers would be at the bottom.
This year, head-to-head showdowns won't come into play until the second round. Instead, all eight hitters will compete in the opening round with the top four moving on to the semifinals. The seeding will be based on how many homers each hit in that opening round, so there is no weight placed on regular-season performance this time around. If there is a tie, seeding will be determined by the longest home run. Once the semis start, ties will be broken by a 60-second swing-off.
Additionally, there is a pitch limit. While time limits remain the same (three minutes in the first round and semis, two minutes in the final), the opening two rounds will end after three minutes OR 40 pitches, whichever comes first. Similarly, the finals will end after two minutes or 27 pitches.
Bonus time has also been tweaked, with it no longer being tied to a time limit. Each batter will automatically have three outs in bonus time. Batters can get a fourth out if they hit a home run 425 feet or longer during the bonus period.
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Recent Home Run Derby winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2023 |  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2022 |  Juan Soto |
| 2021 | Pete Alonso |
| 2020 | Cancelled - COVID 19 |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso |
| 2018 | Bryce Harper |
| 2017 |  Aaron Judge |
| 2016 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2015 |  Todd Frazier |
| 2014 |  Yoenis Cespedes |
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Home Run Derby trends
- Only five players have won the Home Run Derby and recorded the most home runs in the regular season in the same year.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the Home Run Derby in 2023, breaking a streak of four straight NL winners.
- The Home Run Derby title has been shared by two players twice in the event’s history (1986, 1989).
- Ken Griffey Jr., Yoenis Cespedes, and Pete Alonso are the only players to defend their Home Run Derby title in back-to-back years successfully.
MLB Home Run Derby FAQ
New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso is favored to win for the third time at +300.
Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. defeated Randy Arozarena in the finals to win the 2023 Home Run Derby.
Since MLB first brought the Home Run Derby to All-Star festivities in 1985, Ken Griffey Jr. has won the event on three separate occasions (1994, 1998, 1999). Pete Alonso, Yoenis Cespedes, and Prince Fielder have each won twice.
The 2024 Home Run Derby will be held at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX, which is also the site of the All-Star Game.
