NBC Bay Area, Sportsnet

San Francisco @ Toronto props

Rogers Centre

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

George Springer Total Hits Props • Toronto

G. Springer
right outfield RF • Toronto
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Under
-250
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Under
-250
Projection Rating

Rogers Centre grades out as the #28 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). George Springer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against today... and even more favorably, has a huge platoon split. George Springer's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (7.8°) is considerably lower than his 11.5° mark last year. George Springer's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, going from 43.6% on the season to 35.3% in the past week.

George Springer

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Rogers Centre grades out as the #28 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). George Springer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against today... and even more favorably, has a huge platoon split. George Springer's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (7.8°) is considerably lower than his 11.5° mark last year. George Springer's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, going from 43.6% on the season to 35.3% in the past week.

Patrick Bailey Total Hits Props • San Francisco

P. Bailey
catcher C • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-136
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-136
Projection Rating

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Patrick Bailey has been hot of late, batting his way to a .380 wOBA over the past two weeks.

Patrick Bailey

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Patrick Bailey has been hot of late, batting his way to a .380 wOBA over the past two weeks.

Thairo Estrada Total Hits Props • San Francisco

T. Estrada
shortstop SS • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-175
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-175
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thairo Estrada in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Thairo Estrada's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 14.2% to 19.1%. Thairo Estrada has put up a .334 BABIP this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.

Thairo Estrada

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thairo Estrada in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Thairo Estrada's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 14.2% to 19.1%. Thairo Estrada has put up a .334 BABIP this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.

Michael Conforto Total Hits Props • San Francisco

M. Conforto
left outfield LF • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-182
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-182
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Michael Conforto is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Michael Conforto will have the handedness advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup.

Michael Conforto

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Michael Conforto is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Michael Conforto will have the handedness advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup.

Blake Sabol Total Hits Props • San Francisco

B. Sabol
catcher C • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-155
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-155
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Sabol in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Blake Sabol has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Blake Sabol will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game.

Blake Sabol

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Sabol in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Blake Sabol has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Blake Sabol will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game.

Joc Pederson Total Hits Props • San Francisco

J. Pederson
first base 1B • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-200
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-200
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Joc Pederson is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Joc Pederson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Joc Pederson

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Joc Pederson is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Joc Pederson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Kevin Kiermaier Total Hits Props • Toronto

K. Kiermaier
center outfield CF • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. This game is expected to have the 5th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Kiermaier in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering 's huge platoon split. Kevin Kiermaier hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team today.

Kevin Kiermaier

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. This game is expected to have the 5th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Kiermaier in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering 's huge platoon split. Kevin Kiermaier hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of every team today.

Brandon Crawford Total Hits Props • San Francisco

B. Crawford
shortstop SS • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-135
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-135
Projection Rating

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Brandon Crawford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Crawford can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Crawford's true offensive skill to be a .317, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .030 disparity between that figure and his actual .287 wOBA.

Brandon Crawford

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Brandon Crawford will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Crawford can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Crawford's true offensive skill to be a .317, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .030 disparity between that figure and his actual .287 wOBA.

Daulton Varsho Total Hits Props • Toronto

D. Varsho
left outfield LF • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-175
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-175
Projection Rating

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will have the handedness advantage over Daulton Varsho in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering 's huge platoon split. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Daulton Varsho will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Daulton Varsho

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will have the handedness advantage over Daulton Varsho in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering 's huge platoon split. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Daulton Varsho will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Luis Matos Total Hits Props • San Francisco

L. Matos
center outfield CF • San Francisco
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-175
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-175
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Matos in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Luis Matos has been very consistent with his in recent games, putting up a 33.5° launch angle standard deviation in the past two weeks.

Luis Matos

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Matos in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Luis Matos has been very consistent with his in recent games, putting up a 33.5° launch angle standard deviation in the past two weeks.

Danny Jansen Total Hits Props • Toronto

D. Jansen
catcher C • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-180
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-180
Projection Rating

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Extreme groundball bats like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Walker. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Danny Jansen will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Danny Jansen

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Extreme groundball bats like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Walker. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Danny Jansen will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Matt Chapman Total Hits Props • Toronto

M. Chapman
third base 3B • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-190
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-190
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Matt Chapman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Walker who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Matt Chapman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Matt Chapman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Walker who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Whit Merrifield Total Hits Props • Toronto

W. Merrifield
left outfield LF • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Whit Merrifield in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Whit Merrifield will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Whit Merrifield

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Whit Merrifield in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Whit Merrifield will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Brandon Belt Total Hits Props • Toronto

B. Belt
designated hitter DH • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-167
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-167
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Belt has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Belt in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering 's huge platoon split.

Brandon Belt

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Belt in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Belt has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Belt in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering 's huge platoon split.

Cavan Biggio Total Hits Props • Toronto

C. Biggio
second base 2B • Toronto
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.6
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will hold the platoon advantage over Cavan Biggio in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering 's huge platoon split. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Cavan Biggio will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Cavan Biggio

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.6
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.6

Rogers Centre has the 4th-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for dingers. This game is expected to have the 4th-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (79%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. will hold the platoon advantage over Cavan Biggio in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering 's huge platoon split. The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today. Cavan Biggio will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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