Cincinnati @ Washington props

The #1 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Graham Ashcraft will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Meneses in today's game. Typically, batters like Joey Meneses who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Graham Ashcraft. Joey Meneses has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 19.2% to 7.7%.

The #1 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Graham Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage against Lane Thomas in today's game. Lane Thomas's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 15.5% on the season to 0% in the last week. Lane Thomas has been lucky this year, notching a .368 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .038 discrepancy.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Jeimer Candelario's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Keibert Ruiz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 45.1% on the season to 61.5% over the past week. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.274) implies that Keibert Ruiz has suffered from bad luck this year with his .233 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Fraley in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jake Fraley is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage over Josiah Gray in today's matchup.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 87°. Derek Hill has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Derek Hill will hold that advantage today. Derek Hill has struggled to lift the ball recently, posting a -0.3° launch angle over the past week. In terms of his batting average, Derek Hill has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .208 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.

Dominic Smith is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Dominic Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Graham Ashcraft in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Smith stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Will Benson will have the handedness advantage over Josiah Gray in today's matchup. Will Benson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 92.7-mph. In the last 14 days, Will Benson's 57.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jonathan India is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Jonathan India has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.8% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week. Jonathan India has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Matt McLain has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Matt McLain has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.1% seasonal rate to 24.1% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Tyler Stephenson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 92.4-mph in the past 14 days. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 14.4% on the season to 25% over the last week.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 89.8-mph.

In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. CJ Abrams will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Graham Ashcraft in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so CJ Abrams can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Spencer Steer has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.2% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past 14 days. Over the last 14 days, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 94.5-mph recently. Spencer Steer's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 20.8% on the season to 35.7% in the last week.

In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Joey Votto will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josiah Gray today. Joey Votto has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 94.8-mph EV. Over the past 14 days, Joey Votto has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, putting up a 36.2° angle.

In the league, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 5th-highest temperatures on the slate at 84°. Corey Dickerson will hold the platoon advantage over Graham Ashcraft in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Dickerson has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Corey Dickerson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Luis Garcia has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

TJ Friedl has gone over 0.5 in 10 of his last 10 games.