Miami @ St. Louis props

Busch Stadium has the 5th-largest outfield among all major league parks — generally bad for long-balls. Dakota Hudson will have the handedness advantage against Bryan De La Cruz today. Bryan De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Bryan De La Cruz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (9.3°) is quite a bit worse than his 13.2° figure last year. In the last 7 days, Bryan De La Cruz's 25% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.2%.

Dane Myers's BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In the past two weeks' worth of games, Dane Myers has averaged an impressive 96.8-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

Dakota Hudson will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Cooper in today's game. Garrett Cooper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Garrett Cooper today. Garrett Cooper has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 10.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days. a 4.96 K/BB rate this year, Garrett Cooper has displayed weak plate discipline, checking in at the 8th percentile.

Brendan Donovan has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%. Over the past week, Brendan Donovan's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. Despite posting a .383 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Luis Arraez has had positive variance on his side given the .040 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .343.

Joey Wendle's BABIP talent is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Wendle will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Wendle has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Last year, Joey Wendle had an average launch angle of 3.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 7.1°. Over the last two weeks, Joey Wendle's 63.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.2%.

Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Sandy Alcantara today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.276) suggests that Alec Burleson has suffered from bad luck this year with his .235 actual batting average. a 1.69 K/BB rate this year, Alec Burleson has shown good plate discipline, checking in at the 84th percentile.

Yuli Gurriel is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Yuli Gurriel has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 90-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 87.1-mph. Yuli Gurriel's launch angle this year (18.1°) is a considerable increase over his 14.3° figure last season. Yuli Gurriel has shown strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 94th percentile with a 1.42 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dylan Carlson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 16.5% to 19.5%. In the past week's worth of games, Dylan Carlson's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.5%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.354) provides evidence that Dylan Carlson has had some very poor luck this year with his .327 actual wOBA.

Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jesus Sanchez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 97.2-mph. Jesus Sanchez has put up a .348 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 78th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Paul Goldschmidt ranks as the 13th-best batter in the game. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph figure. Paul Goldschmidt has put up a .369 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 91st percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Sandy Alcantara in today's game. Batters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sandy Alcantara who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Nolan Gorman will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Nolan Gorman has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.8% to 21.1%.

Jorge Soler projects as the 20th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Jorge Soler has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal average of 95.2-mph. Jorge Soler's launch angle this year (18.8°) is significantly better than his 13.4° angle last season. Jorge Soler's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (23.4° over the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 17° seasonal angle.

Extreme groundball batters like Paul DeJong generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 45.3% on the season to 55.6% in the last two weeks.

Ivan Herrera will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jean Segura in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Jean Segura hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past week, Jean Segura's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.8% up to 10%. Jean Segura has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph to 91.7-mph in the last 14 days. Jean Segura's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 11.6% on the season to 20% in the last week's worth of games.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Arenado usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara. Nolan Arenado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Nolan Arenado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 96.2-mph over the past two weeks. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 18.6% on the season to 35.7% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara today. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Lars Nootbaar will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Jacob Stallings's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 90-mph now compared to just 86.7-mph then.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Jordan Walker has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 93.1-mph. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 48.7% on the season to 57.1% in the last 14 days.

Jon Berti has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Nick Fortes has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Willson Contreras has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.