New York @ Boston props

17% of the time that Jarren Duran has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Jarren Duran has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days. Jarren Duran's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 80.8-mph in the last week. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 11.9% on the season to 0% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Baty in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average. Brett Baty has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Brett Baty has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.1% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past 7 days. Brett Baty has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .237 BA is a good deal lower than his .262 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.8°, Jeff McNeil has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 19.2° mark in the past 14 days. Jeff McNeil has been unlucky this year, notching a .293 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .035 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against James Paxton. Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Jorge Alfaro is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jorge Alfaro has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Alfaro tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Scherzer. Jorge Alfaro will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest right field fences in Major League Baseball. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Francisco Alvarez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Francisco Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Francisco Alvarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average. Alex Verdugo will hold the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today. Alex Verdugo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Canha in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Mark Canha has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Mark Canha will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kike Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Kike Hernandez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .266 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kike Hernandez has experienced some negative variance given the .051 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 91.7 mph to 87.2 mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.333) suggests that Masataka Yoshida has experienced some positive variance this year with his .380 actual wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 3rd percentile with a 3.7° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Connor Wong's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.2-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph of late.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. James Paxton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Nimmo in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Mark Vientos will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's matchup. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Mark Vientos has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .230 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .264 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Yu Chang will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the last week, Yu Chang's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph recently. When it comes to his batting average, Yu Chang since the start of last season. His .196 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .220.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed batting average. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage over Max Scherzer today. Triston Casas pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Triston Casas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.4% up to 25%.

Justin Turner's batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Justin Turner will hold that advantage in today's game.

Tommy Pham has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Daniel Vogelbach has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

DJ Stewart has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Christian Arroyo has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.