Chicago @ St. Louis props

This contest is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Adam Wainwright will have the handedness advantage against Nico Hoerner today. Nico Hoerner has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 87.2-mph seasonal average has fallen to 81.9-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. This contest is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jameson Taillon will have the handedness advantage against Nolan Arenado in today's matchup. In today's matchup, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.1% rate (100th percentile). Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.

This contest is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Brendan Donovan has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Brendan Donovan has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past two weeks. Over the past 14 days, Brendan Donovan's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 92.1 mph to 89.2 mph.

This contest is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jameson Taillon will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt today. Today, Paul Goldschmidt is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (78th percentile). Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Paul Goldschmidt's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 92.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 85.1-mph over the last week.

This contest is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Mike Tauchman has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mike Tauchman in today's matchup. Mike Tauchman has been lucky this year, putting up a .336 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .028 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Christopher Morel has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 15.3% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last week. Christopher Morel has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. In the past 14 days, Dansby Swanson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph of late. Dansby Swanson's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (23° over the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 17.9° seasonal mark.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Dylan Carlson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's launch angle of late (30° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly better than his 12.7° seasonal angle. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 40.7% to 47.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 78th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon in today's game. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon in today's game. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Ian Happ has displayed strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 91st percentile with a 1.54 K/BB rate.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Cody Bellinger will hold the platoon advantage against Adam Wainwright in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Cody Bellinger hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miles Mastrobuoni in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Miles Mastrobuoni will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adam Wainwright in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Miles Mastrobuoni can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Among all the teams today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Yan Gomes hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Yan Gomes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 15.4% to 19.8%. Yan Gomes has put up a .272 batting average this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Paul DeJong's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (20.8° in the past two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 17.1° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Willson Contreras will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Willson Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.8-mph mark. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Willson Contreras has had bad variance on his side this year. His .341 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .370.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for batters. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 7.1°, Jordan Walker has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 33° angle in the past 7 days.