Colorado @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Chris Flexen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado today. Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. In the last week's worth of games, Nolan Arenado's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

Adam Wainwright will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brendan Rodgers in today's matchup. Brendan Rodgers has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Brendan Rodgers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Brendan Rodgers's 4.5° launch angle (an advanced metric to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most groundball-inducing in the league: 5th percentile.

Jordan Walker is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game. Chris Flexen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Walker in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Jordan Walker has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days. Jordan Walker's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 91.4-mph seasonal average has decreased to 85.4-mph over the past 14 days.

Adam Wainwright will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Tovar today. Ezequiel Tovar has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ezequiel Tovar today. Ezequiel Tovar's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 91.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 88.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Ezequiel Tovar has posted a .297 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 17th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 12th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will lose the platoon advantage while batting from his weak side (0) today against Adam Wainwright Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 95th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jurickson Profar today. Based on Statcast data, Jurickson Profar is in the 21st percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .304.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Flexen today. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Chris Flexen today. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Tommy Edman will hold that advantage in today's game. Tommy Edman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 11.4% to 14.7%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) suggests that Tommy Edman has suffered from bad luck this year with his .237 actual batting average.

Chris Flexen will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt today. In today's game, Paul Goldschmidt is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (77th percentile). Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Paul Goldschmidt's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 92-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 86.8-mph over the past 14 days. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 16% to 12.9%.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in action today. Michael Toglia ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (47.3% rate since the start of last season).

Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ryan McMahon will have the handedness advantage against Adam Wainwright today. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in action today. This year, Ryan McMahon's flyball exit velocity (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 91st percentile at 95.7 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Nolan Jones is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Jones will have the handedness advantage over Adam Wainwright in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in action today.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in action today. Elias Diaz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 92.8-mph in the last two weeks. Elias Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 11.8% to 14.9%.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Elehuris Montero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in action today. Checking in at the 78th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Elehuris Montero demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a core ability for achieving a high batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Chris Flexen today. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Alec Burleson will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level of the day at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Willson Contreras will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.275) may lead us to conclude that Willson Contreras has had some very poor luck this year with his .249 actual batting average.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.