Bally Sports Network, NESN

Boston @ Kansas City props

Kauffman Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Alex Verdugo Total Hits Props • Boston

A. Verdugo
right outfield RF • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
+123
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
+123
Projection Rating

Alex Verdugo has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals. Alex Verdugo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Alex Verdugo's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 90.6 mph to 83.8 mph. Alex Verdugo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 14.1% on the season to 5% in the last 7 days.

Alex Verdugo

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

Alex Verdugo has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals. Alex Verdugo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Alex Verdugo's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 90.6 mph to 83.8 mph. Alex Verdugo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 14.1% on the season to 5% in the last 7 days.

Nelson Velazquez Total Hits Props • Kansas City

N. Velazquez
center outfield CF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+133
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+133
Projection Rating

Nelson Velazquez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Nelson Velazquez will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale today... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.

Nelson Velazquez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Nelson Velazquez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Nelson Velazquez will have the handedness advantage over Chris Sale today... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.

Maikel Garcia Total Hits Props • Kansas City

M. Garcia
shortstop SS • Kansas City
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-186
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-186
Projection Rating

Maikel Garcia has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Maikel Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 92.1 mph to 88 mph. In the last week's worth of games, Maikel Garcia's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.9%. Over the last two weeks, Maikel Garcia has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Maikel Garcia

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Maikel Garcia has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Maikel Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 92.1 mph to 88 mph. In the last week's worth of games, Maikel Garcia's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.9%. Over the last two weeks, Maikel Garcia has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Rafael Devers Total Hits Props • Boston

R. Devers
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-195
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-195
Projection Rating

Today, Rafael Devers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (76th percentile). Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers today. Rafael Devers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 12.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 7 days. In the past week's worth of games, Rafael Devers's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

Rafael Devers

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

Today, Rafael Devers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (76th percentile). Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers today. Rafael Devers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 12.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 7 days. In the past week's worth of games, Rafael Devers's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

Connor Wong Total Hits Props • Boston

C. Wong
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-170
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-170
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Connor Wong has posted a .355 BABIP this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

Connor Wong

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Connor Wong has posted a .355 BABIP this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

Masataka Yoshida Total Hits Props • Boston

M. Yoshida
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Over
-290
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Over
-290
Projection Rating

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Zack Greinke in today's matchup.

Masataka Yoshida

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Zack Greinke in today's matchup.

Triston Casas Total Hits Props • Boston

T. Casas
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-225
Projection Rating

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Triston Casas

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 91°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

Pages Related to This Topic

About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

Weather Forecast