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St. Louis @ Atlanta props

Truist Park

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Ronald Acuna Jr. Total Hits Props • Atlanta

R. Acuna Jr.
right outfield RF • Atlanta
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.4
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.4
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

Dakota Hudson will hold the platoon advantage over Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's game.

Austin Riley Total Hits Props • Atlanta

A. Riley
third base 3B • Atlanta
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-140
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Under
-140
Projection Rating

Among all stadiums, Truist Park's left field dimensions are the 3rd-deepest. Dakota Hudson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Riley today. Austin Riley has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 89.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Austin Riley

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

Among all stadiums, Truist Park's left field dimensions are the 3rd-deepest. Dakota Hudson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Riley today. Austin Riley has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 89.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Masyn Winn Total Hits Props • St. Louis

M. Winn
shortstop SS • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
+110
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
+110
Projection Rating

Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Masyn Winn has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 93.3-mph over the last week.

Masyn Winn

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Masyn Winn has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 93.3-mph over the last week.

Tyler O'Neill Total Hits Props • St. Louis

T. O'Neill
right outfield RF • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 86°. Tyler O'Neill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Tyler O'Neill

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 86°. Tyler O'Neill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Ozzie Albies Total Hits Props • Atlanta

O. Albies
second base 2B • Atlanta
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-157
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-157
Projection Rating

The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will lose the platoon advantage while batting from his worse side (0) today against Dakota Hudson Ozzie Albies has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 8.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 14 days. Ozzie Albies's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 79-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Ozzie Albies's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, going from 20.8% on the season to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Ozzie Albies has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .357 rate is a fair amount higher than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ozzie Albies

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will lose the platoon advantage while batting from his worse side (0) today against Dakota Hudson Ozzie Albies has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 8.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 14 days. Ozzie Albies's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 79-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Ozzie Albies's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, going from 20.8% on the season to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Ozzie Albies has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .357 rate is a fair amount higher than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Sean Murphy Total Hits Props • Atlanta

S. Murphy
catcher C • Atlanta
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-220
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-220
Projection Rating

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Sean Murphy will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Sean Murphy

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Sean Murphy will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Nolan Gorman Total Hits Props • St. Louis

N. Gorman
designated hitter DH • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

Nolan Gorman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

Willson Contreras Total Hits Props • St. Louis

W. Contreras
catcher C • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-135
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°.

Willson Contreras

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°.

Matt Olson Total Hits Props • Atlanta

M. Olson
first base 1B • Atlanta
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-280
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-280
Projection Rating

Matt Olson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 17.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 6.1% over the last two weeks. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Olson has had some very good luck this year. His .403 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .384.

Matt Olson

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Matt Olson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 17.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 6.1% over the last two weeks. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Olson has had some very good luck this year. His .403 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .384.

Michael Harris II Total Hits Props • Atlanta

M. Harris II
left outfield LF • Atlanta
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Michael Harris II will hold the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's matchup.

Michael Harris II

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Michael Harris II will hold the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's matchup.

Jordan Walker Total Hits Props • St. Louis

J. Walker
right outfield RF • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-150
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-150
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

Jordan Walker

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

Nolan Arenado Total Hits Props • St. Louis

N. Arenado
third base 3B • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-185
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-185
Projection Rating

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

Nolan Arenado

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

Tommy Edman Total Hits Props • St. Louis

T. Edman
shortstop SS • St. Louis
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-155
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-155
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°.

Tommy Edman

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°.

Orlando Arcia Total Hits Props • Atlanta

O. Arcia
shortstop SS • Atlanta
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Orlando Arcia hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Orlando Arcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Orlando Arcia

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Truist Park profiles as the #9 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Orlando Arcia hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Orlando Arcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Eddie Rosario Total Hits Props • Atlanta

E. Rosario
left outfield LF • Atlanta
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-270
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-270
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Eddie Rosario will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's game.

Eddie Rosario

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 9th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. In Major League Baseball, Truist Park's CF dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°. Eddie Rosario will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dakota Hudson in today's game.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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