Bally Sports Network, MLBN

Cleveland @ Kansas City props

Kauffman Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Myles Straw Total Hits Props • Cleveland

M. Straw
center outfield CF • Cleveland
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+165
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+165
Projection Rating

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Myles Straw has been unlucky given the .024 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .285.

Myles Straw

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Myles Straw has been unlucky given the .024 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .285.

Drew Waters Total Hits Props • Kansas City

D. Waters
center outfield CF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+140
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
+140
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Drew Waters will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.317) provides evidence that Drew Waters has had some very poor luck this year with his .301 actual wOBA.

Drew Waters

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Drew Waters will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.317) provides evidence that Drew Waters has had some very poor luck this year with his .301 actual wOBA.

Kyle Isbel Total Hits Props • Kansas City

K. Isbel
right outfield RF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+125
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
+125
Projection Rating

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Kyle Isbel will have the handedness advantage over Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Isbel will hold that advantage in today's game. Kyle Isbel's launch angle this year (14.2°) is significantly better than his 10.5° figure last season.

Kyle Isbel

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Kyle Isbel will have the handedness advantage over Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Isbel will hold that advantage in today's game. Kyle Isbel's launch angle this year (14.2°) is significantly better than his 10.5° figure last season.

Nick Pratto Total Hits Props • Kansas City

N. Pratto
left outfield LF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Nick Pratto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill today. Nick Pratto will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Nick Pratto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.

Nick Pratto

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Nick Pratto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill today. Nick Pratto will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Nick Pratto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.

Steven Kwan Total Hits Props • Cleveland

S. Kwan
left outfield LF • Cleveland
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-190
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-190
Projection Rating

Today, Steven Kwan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.8% rate (97th percentile). The Kansas City Royals outfield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team today. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Steven Kwan in today's game. Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.5°, Steven Kwan has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-6°) over the last two weeks. Steven Kwan has been cold lately, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the past two weeks.

Steven Kwan

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

Today, Steven Kwan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.8% rate (97th percentile). The Kansas City Royals outfield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team today. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Steven Kwan in today's game. Compared to his seasonal angle of 10.5°, Steven Kwan has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-6°) over the last two weeks. Steven Kwan has been cold lately, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the past two weeks.

Nelson Velazquez Total Hits Props • Kansas City

N. Velazquez
center outfield CF • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-235
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-235
Projection Rating

Nelson Velazquez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Nelson Velazquez will hold that advantage today. Nelson Velazquez has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 13.7% rate last season to 20.7% this season.

Nelson Velazquez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Nelson Velazquez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Nelson Velazquez will hold that advantage today. Nelson Velazquez has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 13.7% rate last season to 20.7% this season.

Will Brennan Total Hits Props • Cleveland

W. Brennan
center outfield CF • Cleveland
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-286
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-286
Projection Rating

Will Brennan's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Will Brennan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and moreover, Singer has a large platoon split. Will Brennan has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .267 figure is quite a bit lower than his .296 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Will Brennan

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

Will Brennan's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Will Brennan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's game... and moreover, Singer has a large platoon split. Will Brennan has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .267 figure is quite a bit lower than his .296 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Gabriel Arias Total Hits Props • Cleveland

G. Arias
third base 3B • Cleveland
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-278
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-278
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Over the last 14 days, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph lately. When it comes to his batting average, Gabriel Arias has had some very poor luck this year. His .213 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

Gabriel Arias

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Over the last 14 days, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph lately. When it comes to his batting average, Gabriel Arias has had some very poor luck this year. His .213 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

Michael Massey Total Hits Props • Kansas City

M. Massey
second base 2B • Kansas City
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-225
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-225
Projection Rating

Michael Massey is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Michael Massey will have the handedness advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. Michael Massey will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Michael Massey

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Michael Massey is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 81°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters. Michael Massey will have the handedness advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. Michael Massey will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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