Arizona @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park grades out as the #25 ballpark in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the last two weeks' worth of games, CJ Abrams's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (8.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 13.6°.

Nationals Park grades out as the #25 ballpark in the game for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the past week's worth of games, Luis Garcia's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%. Luis Garcia's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.6-mph in the last week. Luis Garcia's launch angle of late (1.2° in the last week's worth of games) is considerably lower than his 8.5° seasonal angle. Posting a 3.65 K/BB rate this year, Luis Garcia has shown weak plate discipline, placing in the 21st percentile.

This year, Randal Grichuk has been pulled from the game early in 35% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst venue in the league for right-handed base hits. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Randal Grichuk in today's matchup. Last season, Randal Grichuk had a launch angle of 9.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 5.8°. In terms of his batting average, Randal Grichuk has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .274 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Jacob Young has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Batters such as Jacob Young with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Jacob Young will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst venue in the league for right-handed base hits. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christian Walker in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Corbin Carroll is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. In the majors, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corbin Carroll stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jesse Winker ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesse Winker is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. In the majors, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Because of Brandon Pfaadt's large platoon split, Jesse Winker will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Geraldo Perdomo will get to bat from his good side against Patrick Corbin in this game. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 37.1% to 55.9%. Geraldo Perdomo has exhibited strong plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile with a 1.4 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst venue in the league for right-handed base hits. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ketel Marte in today's matchup. Ketel Marte's launch angle this season (6.8°) is significantly worse than his 10.6° angle last season. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ketel Marte has experienced some positive variance this year. His .361 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .343.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Nasim Nunez pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Nasim Nunez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nasim Nunez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ranking in the 98th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.77 ft/sec this year, Nasim Nunez is notably toolsy.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Lane Thomas ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lane Thomas is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Lane Thomas has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 8.5% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Batting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Gabriel Moreno will have the upper hand in today's game. Gabriel Moreno has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gabriel Moreno's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, going from 11.9% on the season to 44.4% over the last 7 days.

Joey Meneses's batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Meneses is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Joey Meneses has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Joey Meneses usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.

Eddie Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. In the majors, Nationals Park's right field dimensions are the 6th-shallowest. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Because of Brandon Pfaadt's large platoon split, Eddie Rosario will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Eddie Rosario will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. LaVictor Lipscomb has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like LaVictor Lipscomb generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt. LaVictor Lipscomb will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Batting from the opposite that Patrick Corbin throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Eugenio Suarez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 92.3-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. In the past 14 days, Eugenio Suarez's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.1%.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Brandon Pfaadt) today. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Keibert Ruiz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Keibert Ruiz's launch angle from last year's 15.1° to 20° this season.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nick Senzel will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In terms of his batting average, Nick Senzel has had bad variance on his side this year. His .219 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .243. By putting up a 1.47 K/BB rate this year, Nick Senzel has shown good plate discipline, checking in at the 90th percentile.

Kevin Newman has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.