Boston @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Zack Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Steer in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 92.2 mph to 86.6 mph.

Zack Kelly will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today's matchup. Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 10.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days. Over the last week, Tyler Stephenson's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16%.

The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks. David Hamilton's launch angle of late (25.3° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 13° seasonal figure. Grading out in the 85th percentile, David Hamilton sits with a .330 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Tyler O'Neill will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 9th-best batter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph figure.

Rafael Devers projects as the 17th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Rafael Devers has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Rafael Devers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 95.6-mph in the past 14 days.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 7th-shallowest. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage against Nick Lodolo today. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 107.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.3-mph.

The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Over the last 7 days, Dominic Smith's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.4% up to 16.7%. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.7°, Dominic Smith has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 37° figure in the past week's worth of games. Posting a 1.9 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Dominic Smith has demonstrated strong plate discipline, grading out in the 81st percentile.

The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Kelly throws from, Nick Martini will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Nick Martini will hold that advantage in today's game. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Nick Martini ranks in the 89th percentile with a 19.3° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 4th-best hitter in the game when estimating his BABIP skill. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Zack Kelly in today's game. Elly De La Cruz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Connor Wong's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 7th-shallowest. Connor Wong will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Lodolo in today's matchup.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 7th-shallowest. Rob Refsnyder will have the handedness advantage against Nick Lodolo in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have the upper hand in today's game. Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In terms of his batting average, Romy Gonzalez has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .221 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .256.

Santiago Espinal's batting average talent is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Santiago Espinal has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Santiago Espinal will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Santiago Espinal has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph mark.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Jeimer Candelario will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jeimer Candelario has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 87.2-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league parks, Great American Ball Park's left field fences are the 7th-shallowest. Jonathan India will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jonathan India's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved recently, rising from 46.2% on the season to 66.7% in the last week's worth of games.

The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Kelly throws from, Will Benson will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Will Benson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This year, Will Benson's 13.3% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 89th percentile among his peers. With a .357 BABIP since the start of last season, Will Benson is ranked in the 98th percentile.

Great American Ball Park projects as the #9 ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Stuart Fairchild pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Stuart Fairchild will hold that advantage today. There has been a significant improvement in Stuart Fairchild's launch angle from last year's 14.1° to 19.6° this year.

T.J. Friedl is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. T.J. Friedl will have the handedness advantage against Zack Kelly in today's game. T.J. Friedl pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and T.J. Friedl will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jake Fraley is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The #9 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Jake Fraley will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Kelly in today's game. Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Jake Fraley will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.