Cincinnati @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Alec Burleson's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 90.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 87.5-mph in the last week. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, going from 12.9% on the season to 8.3% in the past two weeks. By putting up a 3.72 K/BB rate this year, Alec Burleson has shown bad plate discipline, checking in at the 21st percentile.

Sonny Gray will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Stephenson in today's matchup. Today, Tyler Stephenson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.4% rate (90th percentile). The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the best out of all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Tyler Stephenson in today's game.

In today's matchup, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.7% rate (87th percentile). Over the past 7 days, Brendan Donovan's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 91.2 mph to 81.4 mph. Brendan Donovan's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (8.7°) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.3° mark last year.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Masyn Winn will have an edge in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.7-mph average last year has dropped to 85.6-mph. Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, putting up a .329 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .286 — a .043 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Noelvi Marte is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Noelvi Marte hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph (a reliable standard to assess power), grading out in the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Jonathan India's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, increasing from 46.2% on the season to 66.7% in the past week. In terms of plate discipline, Jonathan India's ability is quite strong, posting a 1.65 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 87th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Spencer Steer ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Extreme groundball batters like Spencer Steer tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante. Over the past 7 days, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 14.3%.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Stuart Fairchild's launch angle this season (19.6°) is considerably better than his 14.1° angle last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Willson Contreras will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 7.8% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last 7 days.

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nick Lodolo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Gorman today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Nolan Gorman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph of late.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nolan Arenado will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Nolan Arenado has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 93.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 88.8-mph.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Andre Pallante. Elly De La Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Santiago Espinal has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last year's 86.9-mph average. Santiago Espinal's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 13.9% on the season to 25% over the last week. In terms of his batting average, Santiago Espinal has suffered from bad luck this year. His .208 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .256.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Luke Maile's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 20% to 24.5%.

Nick Martini is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nick Martini will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game. Nick Martini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Nick Martini's 19.3° launch angle (an advanced metric to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in the majors: 89th percentile.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Will Benson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game. Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Will Benson has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.3% seasonal rate to 25% in the last week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.2°, Will Benson has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 39.3° figure in the past 14 days.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the same side that Nick Lodolo throws from, Brandon Crawford faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Brandon Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Brandon Crawford will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Compared to last season, Brandon Crawford has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.7% to 17.9% this season.

The weather report projects the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nick Lodolo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Carpenter today. Matt Carpenter will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. When it comes to plate discipline, Matt Carpenter's skill is quite strong, putting up a 1.91 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 80th percentile.