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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -139
|
|
4.66 |
-170 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+140 
|
o7.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -157
|
|
4.82 |
-155
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+156)
o0.5+156
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-140
|
o8.0 -108
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.19 |
+128
|
u8.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+105
|
o8.0 -129
|
+1.5 -199
|
|
4.74 |
-118
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +122
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.74 |
-200
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
4.13 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in Snells last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-135
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.56 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-186
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
4.32 |
+170
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -105
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 home starts.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Cavallis last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+234
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.48 |
+123
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.38 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120 
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Mets last 6 interleague home games.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+120
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.74 |
-140
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Total RBIs (+241)
o0.5+241
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-104
|
o7.5 -124
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.02 |
-110
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+123
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.79 |
-140
|
u9.0 -114
|
-1.5 +152
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as an underdog.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Javiers last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Maikel Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.26 |
-165
|
o11.0 -125
|
-1.5 -108
|
|
5.55 |
+145
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
San Diego
- Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
u1.5-220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-135
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.13 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 8-0 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
o1.5-110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+117
|
o8.5 -132
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.20 |
-130
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+199
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
Total RBIs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+132)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+156)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Anthony Molina in today's game.
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in the game.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.. In the past week, Aaron Judge's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Royce Lewis is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. Royce Lewis will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Rodon today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. There has been a significant improvement in Royce Lewis's launch angle from last year's 17.5° to 20.8° this year.. Royce Lewis's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 15.1% on the season to 20.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. George Springer is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. George Springer will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage today.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+216)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Athletics.. Sacramento's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Cedric Mullins, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.. Cedric Mullins will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Henry Bolte o1.5 Total Bases (+142)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP skill, Henry Bolte is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Henry Bolte is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 88°.. Elly De La Cruz has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Enrique Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enrique Hernandez in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Enrique Hernandez is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Enrique Hernandez today.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 4.5%.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+242)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total RBIs
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Henderson throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's game.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Abimelec Ortiz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Abimelec Ortiz will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Abimelec Ortiz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 3rd-best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP talent.. James Wood is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Considering Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, James Wood will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Francisco Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Francisco Alvarez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 97.4-mph in the last two weeks.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total Bases
Carson Kelly o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
Projection 1.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball.. Carson Kelly will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Based on Statcast data, Carson Kelly grades out in the 77th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .340.. Posting a 1.77 K/BB rate this year, Carson Kelly has displayed impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 76th percentile.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best among every team playing today.
Total Bases
Danny Jansen u1.5 Total Bases (-310)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Danny Jansen's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Danny Jansen is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average skill.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Bobby Witt Jr. has hit one of the hardest balls in the majors over the past 14 days — 112.5-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been unlucky this year, posting a .345 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .381 — a .036 difference.
Total RBIs
Maikel Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Utilizing Statcast data, Maikel Garcia is in the 80th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .346.. Maikel Garcia has posted a .290 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.. Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 89.5-mph figure last year has decreased to 87.2-mph.. Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 74.2-mph in the past week.. Placing in the 1st percentile, Ezequiel Tovar has posted a .248 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.. Checking in at the 4th percentile, Ezequiel Tovar sports a .200 batting average this year.
Total Bases
Jordan Beck u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jordan Beck is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Jordan Beck has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past week's worth of games.. Jordan Beck's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 17.1% to 10.4%.. Over the past 7 days, Jordan Beck's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.4%.. Jordan Beck has posted a .233 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 10th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #3 park in the league for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Bases
Pavin Smith u1.5 Total Bases (-270)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 23rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Pavin Smith is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. 20% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF fences in MLB.. Chase Field has the 10th-tallest fences among all major league stadiums.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
