Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

When starting against a southpaw this year, Amed Rosario has been pulled from the game early 12% of the time. Tropicana Field ranks as the #28 park in the game for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Amed Rosario hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Amed Rosario's launch angle this year (2.6°) is quite a bit worse than his 7.5° figure last year.

Tropicana Field ranks as the #28 park in the game for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.

Jose Caballero will have the handedness advantage against Nick Lodolo in today's game. Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Jose Caballero will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Jose Siri will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo in today's game. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Jose Siri will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Stuart Fairchild pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Stuart Fairchild's launch angle this season (18.8°) is quite a bit better than his 14.1° figure last season. Stuart Fairchild is quite toolsy, ranking in the 93rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.14 ft/sec this year.

Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jake Fraley will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jake Fraley may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP. Jake Fraley pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Over the past week, Jake Fraley's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.5-mph over the course of the season to 105.3-mph recently. Jake Fraley's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 40.9% on the season to 50% over the past week.

Noelvi Marte has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Noelvi Marte has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 87.9-mph. Noelvi Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 12.5% on the season to 21.4% in the last 7 days. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph (a reliable standard to measure power), ranking in the 95th percentile. Noelvi Marte has compiled a .322 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Isaac Paredes will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP talent. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Elly De La Cruz has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.2% to 18.2%. Elly De La Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 95.6-mph in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Curtis Mead will have an edge in today's game. Curtis Mead has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

T.J. Friedl is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. T.J. Friedl will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz today. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so T.J. Friedl has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. T.J. Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Jonathan India pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Sporting a .349 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Jonathan India is positioned in the 87th percentile for hitting ability. Posting a .342 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jonathan India is positioned in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Randy Arozarena will have an advantage in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Randy Arozarena will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field fences in the league. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Nick Lodolo today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .239 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side given the .042 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Will Benson will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Will Benson has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Will Benson's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (17.8°) is a significant increase over his 14.5° angle last year. This year, Will Benson's 12.2% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 85th percentile among his peers. Will Benson's 94.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 75th percentile this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Alex Jackson will have the upper hand in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Jackson will hold that advantage today. Alex Jackson has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 13% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games. Despite posting a .178 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Jackson has had some very poor luck given the .101 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .279.

Tyler Stephenson's BABIP talent is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Tyler Stephenson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Spencer Steer ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph lately. Spencer Steer's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 43.7% on the season to 58.8% in the last week's worth of games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.