Los Angeles @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Xander Bogaerts's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.8-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Gavin Lux will have the handedness advantage over Matt Waldron in today's matchup. Gavin Lux hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Gavin Lux has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 4.1% seasonal rate to 10.5% in the past 14 days.

Petco Park projects as the #24 park in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.6-mph EV last year has dropped off to 87.1-mph. Luis Arraez has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today. Jake Cronenworth will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's game. Jurickson Profar has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.7% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the past week. In the past 14 days, Jurickson Profar's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.8%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ha-seong Kim ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ha-seong Kim hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ha-seong Kim will hold that advantage today. Ha-seong Kim has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.2-mph average to last season's 86.1-mph figure. When it comes to his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance this year. His .232 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Tyler Glasnow in today's game. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Merrill will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jackson Merrill has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8.5% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park. In the last week, Nick Ahmed's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.9% up to 11.1%. Nick Ahmed's launch angle in recent games (33.3° over the last week) is significantly better than his 12.5° seasonal figure. Last year, Nick Ahmed had an average launch angle of 11.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 15.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Teoscar Hernandez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 95.9-mph. Teoscar Hernandez's launch angle recently (24.8° over the past 7 days) is considerably higher than his 9.7° seasonal figure. Based on Statcast metrics, Teoscar Hernandez is in the 84th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .344.

Hitting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Cavan Biggio will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Cavan Biggio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Cavan Biggio's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (24.8°) is significantly better than his 14.4° angle last year.

Hitting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, James Outman will have the upper hand in today's matchup. James Outman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.3-mph average to last year's 92.4-mph mark. In terms of his batting average, James Outman has had some very poor luck this year. His .152 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .204.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, David Peralta will have the upper hand in today's matchup. David Peralta hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. David Peralta will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 19.8% on the season to 31.3% in the last 14 days.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park. Andy Pages has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 93.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 91-mph. Andy Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 16% on the season to 38.5% over the last 7 days. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Andy Pages has experienced some negative variance this year. His .294 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .329.

Jason Heyward is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Jason Heyward will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Waldron today. In the past week's worth of games, Jason Heyward's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 94.6-mph in recent games. Jason Heyward has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 87th percentile with a 1.85 K/BB rate.

Kike Hernandez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Kike Hernandez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph EV. In the last 7 days, Kike Hernandez's 75% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.6%. Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kike Hernandez has suffered from bad luck given the .033 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .294.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Manny Machado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Manny Machado has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9.1% seasonal rate to 21.1% over the last week.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Petco Park. Kyle Higashioka will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the past 14 days, Kyle Higashioka's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.1-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph in recent games. Compared to last season, Kyle Higashioka has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 17.5% to 27% this season. In the last 14 days, Kyle Higashioka's 68.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%.

Shohei Ohtani has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.