Baltimore @ New York Picks & Props

Citi Field ranks as the #30 park in MLB for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Ryan Mountcastle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. When it comes to plate discipline, Ryan Mountcastle's ability is quite poor, putting up a 3.89 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 20th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB. Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Gunnar Henderson may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Gunnar Henderson has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Gunnar Henderson has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.6% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the past week.

Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Harrison Bader will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Jackson Holliday has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jackson Holliday has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .261 mark is a good deal lower than his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Among all parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will get to bat from his good side against Jose Quintana today. Among every team on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

Colton Cowser's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colton Cowser is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Colton Cowser has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Colton Cowser has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 95.7-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.348) suggests that Colton Cowser has experienced some negative variance this year with his .329 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Pete Alonso pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage today. Pete Alonso has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.6% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past 14 days.

Tyrone Taylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Tyrone Taylor will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Tyrone Taylor's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 46.8% on the season to 62.5% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Tyrone Taylor has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .295 rate is quite a bit lower than his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an edge today. Brandon Nimmo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Nimmo will hold that advantage in today's game.

Among all parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Ramon Urias will have an edge today. Ramon Urias has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 92.8-mph in the past 14 days. Ramon Urias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, going from 15.4% on the season to 28% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 7th-best batter in the league when assessing his BABIP skill. Austin Slater is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Among all parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Austin Slater will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Austin Slater's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 45.2% to 56.8%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, J.D. Martinez ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Among all parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and J.D. Martinez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. J.D. Martinez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 94.2-mph in the last week.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Anthony Santander will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Jose Quintana in this game. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Anthony Santander's launch angle this season (23.5°) is considerably higher than his 20° figure last year. Placing in the 86th percentile, Anthony Santander has notched a .351 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Jeff McNeil will have the upper hand in today's game. Jeff McNeil hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences today. Jeff McNeil will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Jeff McNeil's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3% up to 10%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jesse Winker ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Jesse Winker will have an advantage in today's game. Jesse Winker has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jesse Winker will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. In the past week, Jesse Winker's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 93.1 mph to 89.7 mph.

Among all parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Francisco Alvarez will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Francisco Alvarez has notched a .331 BABIP this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences today. Mark Vientos will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. The Barrel% of Mark Vientos has significantly improved, with an increase from 10.7% last year to 15.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Eloy Jimenez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Eloy Jimenez will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Quintana today. Eloy Jimenez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Eloy Jimenez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 93.7-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 85.9-mph over the last 7 days.

James McCann will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana in today's game. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, James McCann has suffered from bad luck this year. His .270 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Among all parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest. Francisco Lindor will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Francisco Lindor has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13.1% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 7 days.